Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
UCLA at Michigan State, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
UCLA beat Michigan State 38–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UCLA wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Michigan State: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UCLA it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff Michigan State was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): UCLA converted 4th & 2, worth 11 points of win probability to UCLA.
Final
 UCLA Bruins | 38 |
|---|---|
 Michigan State Spartans | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 UCLA about even · −4 Michigan State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UCLA wins 10, Michigan State wins 0.
- 1 UCLA 41 MSU 3
- 2 UCLA 45 MSU 14
- 3 UCLA 28 MSU 0
- 4 UCLA 34 MSU 10
- 5 UCLA 38 MSU 17
- 6 UCLA 27 MSU 9
- 7 UCLA 27 MSU 12
- 8 UCLA 20 MSU 7
- 9 UCLA 13 MSU 3
- 10 UCLA 20 MSU 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Michigan State
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UCLA it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
50 points apart for Michigan State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA offenseEPA per play gained | +0.31 | +0.06 | better by 0.25 |
| UCLA defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.17 | +0.11 | better by 0.27 |
| Michigan State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.17 | +0.07 | worse by 0.23 |
| Michigan State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.31 | +0.05 | worse by 0.26 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
UCLA wins 96% of them, Michigan State 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UCLA by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UCLA by 17+ | 67.2% |
| UCLA by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| UCLA by 1–8 | 9.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Michigan State by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| Michigan State by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| Michigan State by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Bhaghani, 47 yds made · 63% expected
- M. Bhaghani, 34 yds missed · 85% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: UCLA 8 for 60 yards, Michigan State 2 for 14 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 9:07 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MSU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 8:14 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UCLA +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:41 | Holding on UCLA, 10 yards | +1% MSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | Holding on UCLA, 10 yards | +1% MSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on UCLA, 10 yards | +3% MSU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 10:41 | Holding on UCLA, 10 yards | +1% MSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:41 | Illegal Substitution on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UCLA +1.0 pts |
| Q3 2:56 | Personal Foul on Michigan State, 9 yards | 0% UCLA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:56 | Ineligible Downfield on UCLA, 5 yards | 0% MSU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Michigan State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:56 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +5% MSU | MSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:04 | Michigan State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +8% UCLA | MSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:35 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% MSU | MSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedUCLA converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedUCLA converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +11% UCLA | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 8:14 | UCLA converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedMichigan State fumbled and UCLA recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on UCLA, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +9% UCLA | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 4:09 | UCLA converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedMichigan State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +6% UCLA | UCLA: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 1:19 | M. Bhaghani missed a 34-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him | +5% MSU | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 15:00 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedMichigan State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedHolding on UCLA, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% MSU | MSU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UCLA 99% · Michigan State 1%
- Final margin
- UCLA by 25
- Luck in points
- 10.5 for UCLA
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UCLA by 14.5
- Replay with same day's form
- UCLA 96% · Michigan State 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
UCLA · 
Michigan State
More from Week 7 2025
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Indiana at Oregon IU 30–20 · replay 55% for the winner
- Ohio State at Illinois OSU 34–16 · replay 61% for the winner
- Rutgers at Washington WASH 38–19 · replay 83% for the winner
- Michigan at USC USC 31–13 · replay 85% for the winner
- Nebraska at Maryland NEB 34–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- Iowa at Wisconsin IOWA 37–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner