Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Coastal Carolina beat UL Monroe 23–8, but the replays lean toward UL Monroe: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff UL Monroe was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:59 left): Coastal Carolina fumbled and recovered it, worth 9 points of win probability to Coastal Carolina.
Final
 UL Monroe Warhawks | 8 |
|---|---|
 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +69 Coastal Carolina very lucky · −69 UL Monroe
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UL Monroe wins 7, Coastal Carolina wins 3.
- 1 ULM 43 CCU 13
- 2 ULM 28 CCU 6
- 3 ULM 23 CCU 5
- 4 ULM 24 CCU 10
- 5 ULM 17 CCU 7
- 6 ULM 10 CCU 3
- 7 ULM 27 CCU 24
- 8 ULM 10 CCU 13
- 9 ULM 3 CCU 10
- 10 ULM 13 CCU 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UL Monroe wins 69% of them, Coastal Carolina 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Coastal Carolina by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UL Monroe by 17+ | 27.7% |
| UL Monroe by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| UL Monroe by 1–8 | 20.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Coastal Carolina by 1–8 | 14.2% |
| Coastal Carolina by 9–16 | 9.5% |
| Coastal Carolina by 17+ | 4.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Afrookhteh, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- K. Afrookhteh, 26 yds made · 91% expected
- K. Afrookhteh, 39 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: UL Monroe 7 for 82 yards, Coastal Carolina 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:59 | Offside on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CCU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 8:52 | Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards | +3% CCU +1.4 pts |
| Q1 5:41 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +3% ULM +1.5 pts |
| Q1 4:03 | Personal Foul on UL Monroe, 15 yards | +5% CCU +2.4 pts |
| Q1 4:03 | Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards | +1% CCU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 12:23 | Chop Block on UL Monroe, 15 yards | +3% CCU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 4:25 | Intentional Grounding on UL Monroe, 18 yards | +5% CCU +2.1 pts |
| Q2 1:24 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +1% ULM +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:24 | Personal Foul on UL Monroe, 9 yards | +3% CCU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 3:48 | Illegal Shift on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Coastal Carolina’s chance of winning
As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:59 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedCoastal Carolina converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedCoastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedCoastal Carolina fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Offside on UL Monroe, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +9% CCU | CCU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 14:15 | Coastal Carolina was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedUL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% ULM | CCU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 12:23 | UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedChop Block on UL Monroe, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% CCU | ULM: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 6:59 | UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 253rd & 4th downs · 14% expectedUL Monroe fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50K. Afrookhteh made a 39-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him | +5% ULM | ULM: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 4:25 | UL Monroe converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedUL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 283rd & 4th downs · 13% expectedCoastal Carolina fumbled and UL Monroe recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Intentional Grounding on UL Monroe, 18 yardsJudgment calls | +4% ULM | ULM: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 1:24 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedHolding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yardsJudgment callsPersonal Foul on UL Monroe, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +3% CCU | CCU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 14:56 | UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +3% CCU | ULM: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 12:25 | UL Monroe was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedCoastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedCoastal Carolina fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% CCU | ULM: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UL Monroe 15% · Coastal Carolina 85%
- Final margin
- Coastal Carolina by 15
- Luck in points
- 7.8 for Coastal Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Coastal Carolina by 7.2
- Replay with same day's form
- UL Monroe 69% · Coastal Carolina 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
UL Monroe · 
Coastal Carolina
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