Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
App State at Georgia State, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
App State beat Georgia State 41–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, App State wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Georgia State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against App State it would win 31% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%. The numbers
Before kickoff App State was a 58% favorite.
Final
 App State Mountaineers | 41 |
|---|---|
 Georgia State Panthers | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 App State about even · 0 Georgia State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. App State wins 10, Georgia State wins 0.
- 1 APP 55 GAST 0
- 2 APP 48 GAST 0
- 3 APP 48 GAST 6
- 4 APP 44 GAST 6
- 5 APP 45 GAST 10
- 6 APP 31 GAST 0
- 7 APP 30 GAST 3
- 8 APP 30 GAST 6
- 9 APP 24 GAST 6
- 10 APP 28 GAST 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Georgia State
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against App State it would win 31% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for Georgia State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| App State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.17 | +0.11 | better by 0.06 |
| App State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.26 | +0.15 | better by 0.41 |
| Georgia State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.26 | +0.05 | worse by 0.31 |
| Georgia State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.12 | worse by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
App State wins 100% of them, Georgia State 0%. The line is what actually happened: App State by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| App State by 17+ | 94.3% |
| App State by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| App State by 1–8 | 1.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Georgia State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Georgia State by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Georgia State by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. McAlister, 28 yds blocked · 88% expected
- D. De Freitas, 32 yds made · 85% expected
- D. De Freitas, 47 yds missed · 60% expected
- D. De Freitas, 46 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: App State 3 for 30 yards, Georgia State 2 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:19 | Delay of Game on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GAST +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:51 | Pass Interference on Georgia State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +5% APP +3.7 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | Pass Interference on Georgia State, 15 yards | +1% APP +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:42 | Holding on App State, 10 yards | 0% GAST +1.3 pts |
| Q4 7:00 | Roughing the Passer on App State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% GAST +4.0 pts |
When it happened
Georgia State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 52%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:58 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% GAST | APP: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:51 | B. McAlister had a 28-yard field goal blockedKicks · 88% expected for him | +5% APP | GAST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:08 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +3% GAST | APP: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:46 | App State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% APP | APP: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 1:04 | App State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% APP | APP: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 10:57 | Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +4% APP | GAST: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 10:17 | Georgia State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +6% APP | GAST: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 0:51 | Pass Interference on Georgia State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% APP | APP: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
App State 100% · Georgia State 0%
- Final margin
- App State by 21
- Luck in points
- 4.4 for Georgia State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- App State by 25.4
- Replay with same day's form
- App State 100% · Georgia State 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
App State · 
Georgia State
More from Week 7 2025
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- Troy at Texas State TROY 48–41 · replay 31% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Georgia Southern USM 38–35 · replay 54% for the winner
- Louisiana at James Madison JMU 24–14 · replay 79% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Marshall MRSH 48–24 · replay 90% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Missouri State at Middle Tennessee MOST 22–20 · replay 40% for the winner