Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Old Dominion at Marshall, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Marshall beat Old Dominion 48–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Marshall wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Old Dominion: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Marshall it would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers
Before kickoff Old Dominion was an 83% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:57 left): Return touchdown by Marshall, worth 13 points of win probability to Marshall.
Final
 Old Dominion Monarchs | 24 |
|---|---|
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Marshall about even · −10 Old Dominion
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Old Dominion wins 1, Marshall wins 9.
- 1 ODU 34 MRSH 27
- 2 ODU 38 MRSH 41
- 3 ODU 2 MRSH 10
- 4 ODU 24 MRSH 37
- 5 ODU 0 MRSH 16
- 6 ODU 28 MRSH 47
- 7 ODU 10 MRSH 34
- 8 ODU 31 MRSH 59
- 9 ODU 21 MRSH 56
- 10 ODU 7 MRSH 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Old Dominion
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Marshall it would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
61 points apart for Old Dominion: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion offenseEPA per play gained | −0.06 | +0.15 | worse by 0.21 |
| Old Dominion defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.03 | worse by 0.09 |
| Marshall offenseEPA per play gained | +0.13 | +0.08 | better by 0.04 |
| Marshall defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.06 | +0.08 | better by 0.14 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Old Dominion wins 10% of them, Marshall 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Marshall by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Old Dominion by 17+ | 1.4% |
| Old Dominion by 9–16 | 2.6% |
| Old Dominion by 1–8 | 5.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 12.8% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 17.0% |
| Marshall by 17+ | 59.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Quinn, 51 yds missed · 52% expected
- L. Quinn, 20 yds made · 93% expected
- R. Callaghan, 42 yds made · 68% expected
- L. Quinn, 46 yds made · 60% expected
Penalties: Old Dominion 7 for 104 yards, Marshall 8 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:06 | False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRSH +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:50 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 15 yards | +3% ODU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:25 | Holding on Old Dominion, 32 yards | +5% MRSH +2.0 pts |
| Q2 5:33 | Face Mask on Old Dominion, 7 yards | +3% MRSH +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:27 | Illegal Formation on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ODU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 13:52 | False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRSH +0.8 pts |
| Q3 13:37 | Offside on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ODU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:30 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 15 yards | +2% ODU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:58 | Holding on Old Dominion, 0 yards | 0% MRSH 0.0 pts |
| Q3 5:56 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | 0% ODU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:42 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | 0% ODU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:54 | Offside on Old Dominion, 50 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH +2.4 pts |
| Q4 11:21 | Offside on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH +1.0 pts |
| Q4 5:27 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | 0% ODU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:51 | Offside on Marshall, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Marshall’s chance of winning
As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:57 | Return touchdown by MarshallSpecial teams | +13% MRSH | MRSH: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 0:47 | Old Dominion converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +7% ODU | ODU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 14:25 | Marshall converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% MRSH | MRSH: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 10:58 | Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +4% MRSH | ODU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 10:20 | Old Dominion was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +5% MRSH | ODU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 8:25 | Holding on Old Dominion, 32 yardsJudgment calls | +5% MRSH | MRSH: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 7:02 | Marshall converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% MRSH | MRSH: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 2:31 | Old Dominion fumbled and Marshall recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% MRSH | ODU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Old Dominion 1% · Marshall 99%
- Final margin
- Marshall by 24
- Luck in points
- 5.5 for Marshall
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Marshall by 18.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Old Dominion 10% · Marshall 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Old Dominion · 
Marshall
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