Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Navy at Temple, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Navy beat Temple 32–31, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Temple wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 24 points of win probability to Navy.
Navy won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Temple it would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers
Before kickoff Navy was a 74% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:39 left): Navy’s two-point try was good, worth 30 points of win probability to Navy.
Final
 Navy Midshipmen | 32 |
|---|---|
 Temple Owls | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +85 Navy very lucky · −85 Temple
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Navy wins 2, Temple wins 8.
- 1 NAVY 28 TEM 17
- 2 NAVY 14 TEM 10
- 3 NAVY 10 TEM 13
- 4 NAVY 3 TEM 10
- 5 NAVY 14 TEM 24
- 6 NAVY 21 TEM 34
- 7 NAVY 21 TEM 38
- 8 NAVY 7 TEM 27
- 9 NAVY 17 TEM 41
- 10 NAVY 21 TEM 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Navy won on an off day
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Temple it would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
57 points apart for Navy: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navy offenseEPA per play gained | +0.39 | +0.23 | better by 0.16 |
| Navy defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.32 | +0.03 | worse by 0.29 |
| Temple offenseEPA per play gained | +0.32 | +0.05 | better by 0.28 |
| Temple defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.39 | +0.08 | worse by 0.30 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Navy wins 15% of them, Temple 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Navy by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Navy by 17+ | 1.7% |
| Navy by 9–16 | 3.9% |
| Navy by 1–8 | 8.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 23.0% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Temple by 17+ | 41.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hardin, 39 yds missed · 75% expected
- C. Hardin, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- N. Kirkwood, 48 yds made · 55% expected
Penalties: Navy 4 for 30 yards, Temple 2 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:13 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEM +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:39 | Pass Interference on Navy, 15 yards | 0% TEM +1.9 pts |
| Q3 0:50 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% NAVY +2.7 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offside on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TEM +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:09 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TEM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:05 | Pass Interference on Temple, 15 yards | +2% NAVY +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Temple’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 11:53 | Navy converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +7% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 0:50 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% NAVY | NAVY: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 14:55 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +6% NAVY | TEM: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 10:44 | Navy was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +8% TEM | NAVY: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 10:33 | Navy converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +13% NAVY | NAVY: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 8:52 | Navy converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +11% NAVY | NAVY: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 6:34 | N. Kirkwood made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 3 of 3 from 45+ before | +9% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:39 | The game turned hereNavy converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedNavy’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +30% NAVY | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Navy 32% · Temple 68%
- Final margin
- Navy by 1
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for Navy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Temple by 3.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Navy 15% · Temple 85% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Navy · 
Temple
More from Week 7 2025
- East Carolina at Tulane TULN 26–19 · replay 76% for the winner
- South Florida at North Texas USF 63–36 · replay 93% for the winner
- Rice at UTSA UTSA 61–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Charlotte at Army ARMY 24–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- UAB at Florida Atlantic FAU 53–33 · replay 100% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Troy at Texas State TROY 48–41 · replay 31% for the winner