Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Charlotte at Army, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Army beat Charlotte 24–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Army wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Army was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Charlotte 49ers | 7 |
|---|---|
 Army Black Knights | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Army about even · 0 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Charlotte wins 0, Army wins 10.
- 1 CLT 7 ARMY 16
- 2 CLT 7 ARMY 21
- 3 CLT 0 ARMY 17
- 4 CLT 0 ARMY 20
- 5 CLT 0 ARMY 23
- 6 CLT 0 ARMY 24
- 7 CLT 0 ARMY 27
- 8 CLT 0 ARMY 30
- 9 CLT 0 ARMY 33
- 10 CLT 0 ARMY 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Charlotte wins 0% of them, Army 100%. The line is what actually happened: Army by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Charlotte by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Army by 1–8 | 4.0% |
| Army by 9–16 | 9.1% |
| Army by 17+ | 86.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Jones, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- D. Jones, 38 yds missed · 76% expected
- D. Jones, 45 yds blocked · 63% expected
Penalties: Charlotte 2 for 20 yards, Army 1 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:18 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARMY +0.7 pts |
| Q3 7:36 | Face Mask on Army, 15 yards | 0% CLT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:13 | Face Mask on Charlotte, 15 yards | 0% ARMY +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Army’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:41 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +1% CLT | CLT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:01 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +1% ARMY | CLT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 2:07 | Army fumbled and Charlotte recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% CLT | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 14:54 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% ARMY | CLT: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 14:30 | Charlotte was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +2% ARMY | CLT: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 13:10 | Army converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +1% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 10:03 | Army was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +1% CLT | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 9:15 | Army converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +2% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Charlotte 0% · Army 100%
- Final margin
- Army by 17
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for Charlotte
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Army by 19.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Charlotte 0% · Army 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Charlotte · 
Army
More from Week 7 2025
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- East Carolina at Tulane TULN 26–19 · replay 76% for the winner
- South Florida at North Texas USF 63–36 · replay 93% for the winner
- Rice at UTSA UTSA 61–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- UAB at Florida Atlantic FAU 53–33 · replay 100% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Troy at Texas State TROY 48–41 · replay 31% for the winner