luckadjusted
CFB Week 10 · 2026

2026 college football season · October 13, 2026–October 17, 2026

Week 7 2026: upsets, and who deserved to win

18 upsets in Week 7 2026. The biggest: Auburn beat Georgia 27–24 as 10% underdogs, and got lucky. 9 of 62 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Tulane beat Memphis 31–17 in a game it wins 11% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 7 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 10 of 18 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Auburn 27–24 @ Georgia 10% 7% Lucky
Charlotte 38–31 @ Temple 13% 43% Coin flip
Florida 27–24 @ Texas 19% 19% Lucky
BYU 28–24 vs Notre Dame 25% 79% Deserved
Tennessee 26–10 vs Alabama 31% 58% Coin flip
Kentucky 21–13 @ Oklahoma 32% 32% Lucky
Tulane 31–17 vs Memphis 34% 11% Lucky
Boston College 27–21 vs Pittsburgh 34% 61% Deserved
San Diego State 26–23 vs Fresno State 34% 63% Deserved
Ball State 32–31 @ Bowling Green 35% 81% Deserved
UAB 30–17 vs East Carolina 36% 64% Deserved
Rutgers 37–30 @ Maryland 36% 78% Deserved
Arkansas 31–21 @ Vanderbilt 36% 46% Coin flip
TCU 17–6 @ Baylor 41% 62% Deserved
Washington 38–26 @ Purdue 42% 97% Deserved
North Carolina 24–20 @ Duke 42% 25% Lucky
Missouri State 24–21 vs Kennesaw State 44% 71% Deserved
Middle Tennessee 33–30 vs Delaware 46% 88% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 7 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Auburn W 27–24 @ Georgia 7% +93
2 Tulane W 31–17 vs Memphis 11% +89
3 Florida W 27–24 @ Texas 19% +81
4 North Carolina W 24–20 @ Duke 25% +75
5 Louisville W 34–26 @ Syracuse 25% +75
6 Ohio State W 19–15 @ Indiana 26% +74
7 Kentucky W 21–13 @ Oklahoma 32% +68
8 New Mexico W 21–10 @ Hawai'i 34% +66
9 Utah W 27–24 @ Colorado 38% +62
10 Charlotte W 38–31 @ Temple 43% +57
11 Arkansas W 31–21 @ Vanderbilt 46% +54
12 Tulsa W 38–17 @ Rice 47% +53
13 Virginia Tech W 34–24 vs Georgia Tech 48% +52
14 West Virginia W 45–42 vs Cincinnati 48% +52
15 App State W 35–32 @ Coastal Carolina 49% +51
16 Houston W 35–32 vs Oklahoma State 50% +50
17 Buffalo W 25–18 vs Massachusetts 51% +49
18 Oregon W 17–14 vs Nebraska 52% +48
19 Arkansas State W 23–13 @ Southern Miss 54% +46
20 UTSA W 38–34 vs Navy 57% +43
21 Northwestern W 24–21 @ Michigan State 57% +43
22 Tennessee W 26–10 vs Alabama 58% +42
23 Boston College W 27–21 vs Pittsburgh 61% +39
24 TCU W 17–6 @ Baylor 62% +38
25 San Diego State W 26–23 vs Fresno State 63% +37
26 UAB W 30–17 vs East Carolina 64% +36
27 Western Michigan W 21–14 @ Central Michigan 68% +32
28 Toledo W 34–14 @ Eastern Michigan 69% +31
29 Missouri State W 24–21 vs Kennesaw State 71% +29
30 SMU W 23–13 vs Virginia 71% +29
31 San José State W 24–11 @ UTEP 72% +28
32 Oregon State W 48–30 vs Washington State 76% +24
33 Western Kentucky W 16–3 @ Sam Houston 76% +24
34 Rutgers W 37–30 @ Maryland 78% +22
35 BYU W 28–24 vs Notre Dame 79% +21
36 Ball State W 32–31 @ Bowling Green 81% +19
37 Louisiana W 33–6 vs Troy 84% +16
38 Georgia Southern W 23–15 @ Old Dominion 85% +15
39 South Florida W 29–2 vs Kent State 86% +14
40 North Dakota State W 31–17 vs Nevada 87% +13
41 Michigan W 21–18 vs Penn State 87% +13
42 Middle Tennessee W 33–30 vs Delaware 88% +12
43 Jacksonville State W 27–24 vs Florida International 90% +10
44 Kansas State W 35–24 vs Kansas 90% +10
45 UCLA W 17–7 vs Wisconsin 90% +10
46 Ole Miss W 31–3 vs Missouri 92% +8
47 James Madison W 49–22 vs Georgia State 92% +8
48 Air Force W 41–31 vs UNLV 93% +7
49 Miami W 43–35 vs Florida State 93% +7
50 Texas Tech W 53–25 vs Arizona State 93% +7
51 Louisiana Tech W 24–0 @ UL Monroe 95% +5
52 Army W 56–24 vs Florida Atlantic 95% +5
53 Washington W 38–26 @ Purdue 97% +3
54 Stanford W 34–7 vs Elon 97% +3
55 LSU W 31–0 vs Mississippi State 97% +3
56 Texas State W 66–27 vs Colorado State 98% +2
57 Miami (OH) W 34–14 vs Akron 99% +1
58 Clemson W 37–0 vs Charleston Southern 100% 0
59 Wake Forest W 41–7 @ California 100% 0
60 Ohio W 48–7 @ Sacramento State 100% 0
61 Texas A&M W 41–0 vs The Citadel 100% 0
62 Wyoming W 41–23 vs Northern Illinois 100% 0
63 Northern Illinois L 23–41 @ Wyoming 0% 0
64 Sacramento State L 7–48 vs Ohio 0% 0
65 California L 7–41 vs Wake Forest 0% 0
66 Akron L 14–34 @ Miami (OH) 1% −1
67 Colorado State L 27–66 @ Texas State 2% −2
68 Mississippi State L 0–31 @ LSU 3% −3
69 Purdue L 26–38 vs Washington 3% −3
70 Florida Atlantic L 24–56 @ Army 5% −5
71 UL Monroe L 0–24 vs Louisiana Tech 5% −5
72 Arizona State L 25–53 @ Texas Tech 7% −7
73 Florida State L 35–43 @ Miami 7% −7
74 UNLV L 31–41 @ Air Force 7% −7
75 Georgia State L 22–49 @ James Madison 8% −8
76 Missouri L 3–31 @ Ole Miss 8% −8
77 Wisconsin L 7–17 @ UCLA 10% −10
78 Kansas L 24–35 @ Kansas State 10% −10
79 Florida International L 24–27 @ Jacksonville State 10% −10
80 Delaware L 30–33 @ Middle Tennessee 12% −12
81 Penn State L 18–21 @ Michigan 13% −13
82 Nevada L 17–31 @ North Dakota State 13% −13
83 Kent State L 2–29 @ South Florida 14% −14
84 Old Dominion L 15–23 vs Georgia Southern 15% −15
85 Troy L 6–33 @ Louisiana 16% −16
86 Bowling Green L 31–32 vs Ball State 19% −19
87 Notre Dame L 24–28 @ BYU 21% −21
88 Maryland L 30–37 vs Rutgers 22% −22
89 Sam Houston L 3–16 vs Western Kentucky 24% −24
90 Washington State L 30–48 @ Oregon State 24% −24
91 UTEP L 11–24 vs San José State 28% −28
92 Virginia L 13–23 @ SMU 29% −29
93 Kennesaw State L 21–24 @ Missouri State 29% −29
94 Eastern Michigan L 14–34 vs Toledo 31% −31
95 Central Michigan L 14–21 vs Western Michigan 32% −32
96 East Carolina L 17–30 @ UAB 36% −36
97 Fresno State L 23–26 @ San Diego State 37% −37
98 Baylor L 6–17 vs TCU 38% −38
99 Pittsburgh L 21–27 @ Boston College 39% −39
100 Alabama L 10–26 @ Tennessee 42% −42
101 Michigan State L 21–24 vs Northwestern 43% −43
102 Navy L 34–38 @ UTSA 43% −43
103 Southern Miss L 13–23 vs Arkansas State 46% −46
104 Nebraska L 14–17 @ Oregon 48% −48
105 Massachusetts L 18–25 @ Buffalo 49% −49
106 Oklahoma State L 32–35 @ Houston 50% −50
107 Coastal Carolina L 32–35 vs App State 51% −51
108 Cincinnati L 42–45 @ West Virginia 52% −52
109 Georgia Tech L 24–34 @ Virginia Tech 52% −52
110 Rice L 17–38 vs Tulsa 53% −53
111 Vanderbilt L 21–31 vs Arkansas 54% −54
112 Temple L 31–38 vs Charlotte 57% −57
113 Colorado L 24–27 vs Utah 62% −62
114 Hawai'i L 10–21 vs New Mexico 66% −66
115 Oklahoma L 13–21 vs Kentucky 68% −68
116 Indiana L 15–19 vs Ohio State 74% −74
117 Syracuse L 26–34 vs Louisville 75% −75
118 Duke L 20–24 vs North Carolina 75% −75
119 Texas L 24–27 vs Florida 81% −81
120 Memphis L 17–31 @ Tulane 89% −89
121 Georgia L 24–27 vs Auburn 93% −93