Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress

TCU Horned Frogs: luck and expected wins

TCU is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.4 wins. Luck cost 0.4: the 32nd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–2.

2026, game by game

How often TCU wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs North Carolina	L 10–15	25%	−25
Week 2	vs Grambling	W 63–7	100%	0
Week 3	vs Arkansas State	W 31–7	96%	+4
Week 4	@ UCF	L 13–21	23%	−23

Wk 1 −25 vs UNC

Wk 2 0 vs GRAM

Wk 3 +4 vs ARST

Wk 4 −23 @ UCF

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	TCU win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs BYU	BYU by 4.1	40%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Baylor	Baylor by 2.4	44%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs West Virginia	TCU by 9.9	73%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Kansas	TCU by 9.1	71%
Week 10 · Nov 6	at Arizona	Arizona by 4.9	38%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Kansas State	TCU by 0.1	50%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Utah	Utah by 13.6	21%
Week 13 · Nov 26	at Texas Tech	Texas Tech by 11.2	25%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in TCU’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.25	+3.8
Kicks	+0.07	+6.5
3rd & 4th downs	−0.04	+16.7
Pre-snap flags	−0.10	−3.0

Luckiest wins

Wins TCU takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Valero Alamo Bowl	vs USC	W 30–27	34%	+66
2025 Week 9	@ West Virginia	W 23–17	40%	+60
2025 Week 6	vs Colorado	W 35–21	41%	+59
2025 Week 14	vs Cincinnati	W 45–23	46%	+54
2025 Week 4	vs SMU	W 35–24	74%	+26

Unluckiest losses

Losses TCU would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	vs Iowa State	L 17–20	78%	−78
2025 Week 7	@ Kansas State	L 28–41	69%	−69
2026 Week 1	vs North Carolina	L 10–15	25%	−25
2026 Week 4	@ UCF	L 13–21	23%	−23
2025 Week 12	@ BYU	L 13–44	11%	−11

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	8–4	7.3	+0.7	3–2	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ North Carolina	W 48–14	99%	+1
Week 3	vs Abilene Christian	W 42–21	93%	+7
Week 4	vs SMU	W 35–24	74%	+26
Week 5	@ Arizona State	L 24–27	11%	−11
Week 6	vs Colorado	W 35–21	41%	+59
Week 7	@ Kansas State	L 28–41	69%	−69
Week 8	vs Baylor	W 42–36	93%	+7
Week 9	@ West Virginia	W 23–17	40%	+60
Week 11	vs Iowa State	L 17–20	78%	−78
Week 12	@ BYU	L 13–44	11%	−11
Week 13	@ Houston	W 17–14	75%	+25
Week 14	vs Cincinnati	W 45–23	46%	+54
Valero Alamo Bowl	vs USC	W 30–27	34%	+66