luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

Cincinnati at TCU, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

TCU beat Cincinnati 45–23, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, TCU wins 5 of 10.

Before kickoff TCU was a 58% favorite.

Final

Cincinnati Bearcats 23
TCU Horned Frogs 45

November 29, 2025 · Amon G. Carter Stadium · Closing line: TCU −3

Luck index +54 TCU lucky · −54 Cincinnati

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cincinnati wins 5, TCU wins 5.

  1. 1 CIN 35 TCU 10
  2. 2 CIN 38 TCU 21
  3. 3 CIN 24 TCU 13
  4. 4 CIN 38 TCU 31
  5. 5 CIN 24 TCU 21
  6. 6 CIN 21 TCU 23
  7. 7 CIN 17 TCU 23
  8. 8 CIN 15 TCU 24
  9. 9 CIN 20 TCU 34
  10. 10 CIN 17 TCU 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cincinnati wins 54% of them, TCU 46%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: TCU by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cincinnati by 17+17.1%
Cincinnati by 9–1617.0%
Cincinnati by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.0%
TCU by 1–822.1%
TCU by 9–1611.2%
TCU by 17+11.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to TCU: the final margin was TCU by 22, without the luck TCU by 15.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. McCashland, 32 yds made · 83% expected
  • S. Rusnak, 26 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cincinnati 4 for 25 yards, TCU 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:02 Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards +2% TCU +1.2 pts
Q2 14:08 False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TCU 0.0 pts
Q2 13:40 Illegal Substitution on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TCU +0.1 pts
Q2 12:34 Illegal Substitution on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 5:40 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on TCU, 15 yards +3% CIN +1.8 pts
Q3 11:08 Intentional Grounding on TCU, 0 yards 0% CIN 0.0 pts
Q3 10:50 False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TCU +1.2 pts
Q3 0:03 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.5 pts
Q4 10:30 False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TCU +3.5 pts
Q4 3:36 Unnecessary Roughness on TCU, 15 yards 0% CIN +1.6 pts

When it happened

TCU’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while TCU was ahead in it, below while Cincinnati was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:14 Cincinnati was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected +6% TCU CIN: Punt
2 Q1 10:48 TCU converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +2% TCU TCU: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:14 TCU converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +3% TCU TCU: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:28 Cincinnati converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +2% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:45 TCU converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +3% TCU TCU: Field goal
6 Q2 10:22 TCU was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% CIN TCU: Field goal
7 Q2 9:00 TCU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% TCU TCU: Field goal
8 Q2 5:40 TCU was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on TCU, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% CIN TCU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cincinnati 1% · TCU 99%

Final margin
TCU by 22
Luck in points
6.9 for TCU
Luck-adjusted margin
TCU by 15.1
Replay with same day's form
Cincinnati 54% · TCU 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Cincinnati · TCU

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