luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

UCF at BYU, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

BYU beat UCF 41–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, BYU wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff BYU was an 87% favorite.

Final

UCF Knights 21
BYU Cougars 41

November 29, 2025 · LaVell Edwards Stadium · Closing line: BYU −17.5

Luck index +10 BYU about even · −10 UCF

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UCF wins 1, BYU wins 9.

  1. 1 UCF 21 BYU 14
  2. 2 UCF 10 BYU 13
  3. 3 UCF 17 BYU 24
  4. 4 UCF 14 BYU 24
  5. 5 UCF 10 BYU 24
  6. 6 UCF 10 BYU 27
  7. 7 UCF 3 BYU 23
  8. 8 UCF 20 BYU 44
  9. 9 UCF 13 BYU 42
  10. 10 UCF 0 BYU 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UCF wins 10% of them, BYU 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: BYU by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UCF by 17+0.7%
UCF by 9–162.3%
UCF by 1–86.2%
Level after regulation0.5%
BYU by 1–816.7%
BYU by 9–1620.6%
BYU by 17+52.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to BYU: the final margin was BYU by 20, without the luck BYU by 18.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Ferrin, 40 yds missed · 78% expected
  • W. Ferrin, 26 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Ferrin, 48 yds missed · 62% expected
  • W. Ferrin, 50 yds made · 58% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UCF 6 for 34 yards, BYU 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:01 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BYU +0.5 pts
Q1 11:26 Holding on UCF, 10 yards +2% BYU +1.3 pts
Q2 11:57 False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% UCF +1.3 pts
Q2 8:55 Illegal Formation on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BYU +0.3 pts
Q2 1:41 Holding on BYU, 10 yards +1% UCF +0.7 pts
Q2 0:38 Face Mask on UCF, 9 yards 0% BYU +1.4 pts
Q3 7:34 Intentional Grounding on UCF, 0 yards 0% BYU 0.0 pts
Q3 6:58 Personal Foul on BYU, 15 yards 0% UCF +1.6 pts
Q4 8:53 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BYU +0.8 pts
Q4 3:03 Holding on BYU, 10 yards 0% UCF +0.9 pts

When it happened

BYU’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while BYU was ahead in it, below while UCF was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:00 UCF converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% UCF UCF: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:49 BYU fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% BYU BYU: Punt
3 Q1 6:04 UCF converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +2% UCF UCF: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:21 UCF converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +2% UCF UCF: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:59 BYU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% BYU BYU: Touchdown
6 Q2 11:57 False Start on BYU, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% UCF UCF: Punt
7 Q2 11:30 BYU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +3% BYU BYU: Missed field goal
8 Q2 10:00 W. Ferrin missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him +7% UCF BYU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UCF 0% · BYU 100%

Final margin
BYU by 20
Luck in points
1.8 for BYU
Luck-adjusted margin
BYU by 18.2
Replay with same day's form
UCF 10% · BYU 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · UCF · BYU

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