Week 14 2025 · November 28, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 34 of the 40 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
San Diego State at New Mexico, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
New Mexico beat San Diego State 23–17, but the replays lean toward San Diego State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff San Diego State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:57 left): Illegal Touching on San Diego State, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 25 points of win probability to New Mexico.
Final (OT)
 San Diego State Aztecs | 17 |
|---|---|
 New Mexico Lobos | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +74 New Mexico very lucky · −74 San Diego State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. San Diego State wins 7, New Mexico wins 3.
- 1 SDSU 30 UNM 0
- 2 SDSU 24 UNM 3
- 3 SDSU 20 UNM 3
- 4 SDSU 17 UNM 3
- 5 SDSU 20 UNM 10
- 6 SDSU 9 UNM 3
- 7 SDSU 20 UNM 17
- 8 SDSU 3 UNM 6
- 9 SDSU 10 UNM 17
- 10 SDSU 14 UNM 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
San Diego State wins 74% of them, New Mexico 26%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| San Diego State by 17+ | 27.3% |
| San Diego State by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| San Diego State by 1–8 | 21.2% |
| Level after regulation | 5.1% |
| New Mexico by 1–8 | 13.6% |
| New Mexico by 9–16 | 7.7% |
| New Mexico by 17+ | 3.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Drzewiecki, 37 yds made · 77% expected
- G. Plascencia, 52 yds missed · 55% expected
- G. Plascencia, 44 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: San Diego State 6 for 58 yards, New Mexico 5 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:17 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards | +1% UNM +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:14 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards | +2% SDSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:11 | Holding on New Mexico, 8 yards | +3% SDSU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 8:40 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards | +4% UNM +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:30 | Personal Foul on San Diego State, 15 yards | +1% UNM +0.4 pts |
| Q3 5:57 | Illegal Touching on San Diego State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +25% UNM +7.1 pts |
| Q3 2:49 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on New Mexico, 15 yards | +6% SDSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:03 | Pass Interference on San Diego State, 7 yards, wiping out the play | +13% UNM +4.7 pts |
| Q4 13:31 | False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SDSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:27 | False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SDSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:33 | Kick Catch Interference on San Diego State, 11 yards | +4% UNM +0.7 pts |
When it happened
New Mexico’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:10 | San Diego State fumbled and New Mexico recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% UNM | SDSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 5:57 | Illegal Touching on San Diego State, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +25% UNM | UNM: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 5:47 | G. Plascencia missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 8 of 10 from 45+ before | +8% UNM | SDSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 2:49 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on New Mexico, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% SDSU | SDSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 0:03 | Pass Interference on San Diego State, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +13% UNM | UNM: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 10:28 | San Diego State converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +15% SDSU | SDSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 5:08 | San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +8% UNM | SDSU: Punt |
| 8 | OT | New Mexico fumbled and San Diego State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +20% SDSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
San Diego State 12% · New Mexico 88%
- Final margin
- New Mexico by 6
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for San Diego State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- New Mexico by 7.4
- Replay with same day's form
- San Diego State 74% · New Mexico 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 34 of the 40 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
San Diego State · 
New Mexico
More from Week 14 2025
- Boise State at Utah State BOIS 25–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Air Force at Colorado State AF 42–21 · replay 71% for the winner
- Fresno State at San José State FRES 41–14 · replay 84% for the winner
- Wyoming at Hawai'i HAW 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- UNLV at Nevada UNLV 42–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State MTSU 31–24 · replay 32% for the winner