luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

UNLV at Nevada, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

UNLV beat Nevada 42–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UNLV wins 10 of 10. Nevada had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Nevada.

Before kickoff UNLV was a 69% favorite.

Final

UNLV Rebels 42
Nevada Wolf Pack 17

November 29, 2025 · Mackay Stadium · Closing line: UNLV −7.5

Luck index +2 UNLV about even · −2 Nevada

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UNLV wins 10, Nevada wins 0.

  1. 1 UNLV 52 NEV 0
  2. 2 UNLV 51 NEV 7
  3. 3 UNLV 52 NEV 14
  4. 4 UNLV 63 NEV 28
  5. 5 UNLV 45 NEV 14
  6. 6 UNLV 48 NEV 21
  7. 7 UNLV 58 NEV 35
  8. 8 UNLV 51 NEV 33
  9. 9 UNLV 49 NEV 35
  10. 10 UNLV 48 NEV 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UNLV wins 98% of them, Nevada 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UNLV by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UNLV by 17+81.1%
UNLV by 9–1610.5%
UNLV by 1–86.0%
Level after regulation0.7%
Nevada by 1–81.1%
Nevada by 9–160.4%
Nevada by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to UNLV: the final margin was UNLV by 25, without the luck UNLV by 24.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. McFadden, 40 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. McFadden, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UNLV 14 for 92 yards, Nevada 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:12 Holding on Nevada, 10 yards 0% UNLV +0.2 pts
Q1 9:56 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NEV +1.2 pts
Q1 8:45 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NEV +2.4 pts
Q1 6:32 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UNLV, 2 yards 0% NEV +0.2 pts
Q1 3:22 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NEV +1.2 pts
Q1 3:22 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NEV +0.5 pts
Q2 11:39 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NEV +1.4 pts
Q2 11:11 Pass Interference on Nevada, 15 yards +1% UNLV +0.8 pts
Q2 4:41 Ineligible Downfield on UNLV, 5 yards 0% NEV +0.9 pts
Q2 0:52 False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNLV 0.0 pts
Q3 12:06 Holding on Nevada, 10 yards 0% UNLV +0.6 pts
Q3 5:55 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NEV +3.2 pts
Q4 14:23 Holding on UNLV, 10 yards 0% NEV +0.7 pts
Q4 10:03 Face Mask on UNLV, 15 yards 0% NEV +1.6 pts
Q4 9:00 False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNLV +0.7 pts
Q4 8:04 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NEV +0.7 pts
Q4 5:13 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NEV +0.6 pts
Q4 3:39 Face Mask on UNLV, 15 yards 0% NEV +1.1 pts

When it happened

Nevada’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Nevada was ahead in it, below while UNLV was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:56 Offside on UNLV, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% NEV NEV: Punt
2 Q1 8:45 Offside on UNLV, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% NEV NEV: Punt
3 Q1 8:15 Nevada was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +2% UNLV NEV: Punt
4 Q1 6:32 UNLV was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on UNLV, 2 yardsJudgment calls +1% NEV UNLV: Punt
5 Q1 3:22 Offside on UNLV, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsOffside on UNLV, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% NEV NEV: Field goal
6 Q2 11:39 Offside on UNLV, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% NEV NEV: Turnover
7 Q2 11:33 Nevada fumbled and UNLV recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% UNLV NEV: Punt
8 Q2 8:26 UNLV converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +1% UNLV UNLV: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UNLV 100% · Nevada 0%

Final margin
UNLV by 25
Luck in points
0.1 for UNLV
Luck-adjusted margin
UNLV by 24.9
Replay with same day's form
UNLV 98% · Nevada 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · UNLV · Nevada

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