Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 48 of the 55 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Middle Tennessee beat New Mexico State 31–24, but the replays lean toward New Mexico State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff New Mexico State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:14 left): Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to New Mexico State.
Final (OT)
 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 31 |
|---|---|
 New Mexico State Aggies | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 Middle Tennessee very lucky · −68 New Mexico State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Middle Tennessee wins 3, New Mexico State wins 7.
- 1 MTSU 30 NMSU 13
- 2 MTSU 23 NMSU 14
- 3 MTSU 24 NMSU 21
- 4 MTSU 21 NMSU 24
- 5 MTSU 16 NMSU 21
- 6 MTSU 13 NMSU 21
- 7 MTSU 0 NMSU 13
- 8 MTSU 17 NMSU 34
- 9 MTSU 7 NMSU 30
- 10 MTSU 7 NMSU 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Middle Tennessee wins 32% of them, New Mexico State 68%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Middle Tennessee by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee by 17+ | 6.5% |
| Middle Tennessee by 9–16 | 9.0% |
| Middle Tennessee by 1–8 | 15.0% |
| Level after regulation | 4.3% |
| New Mexico State by 1–8 | 20.3% |
| New Mexico State by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| New Mexico State by 17+ | 26.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Hathaway, 25 yds made · 91% expected
- R. Hawk, 35 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: Middle Tennessee 12 for 105 yards, New Mexico State 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:11 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | 0% NMSU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:17 | Delay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NMSU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:00 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +1% NMSU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:58 | Illegal Formation on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MTSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:10 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +2% NMSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:56 | Roughing the Passer on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | 0% NMSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:42 | Delay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NMSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:34 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MTSU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 8:58 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% MTSU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 1:02 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards | +3% NMSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:14 | Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | +7% NMSU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 9:24 | False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NMSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 7:14 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% NMSU +2.3 pts |
| Q4 5:05 | Illegal Formation on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% NMSU +7.8 pts |
| Q4 3:45 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +5% NMSU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
New Mexico State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:37 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% NMSU | NMSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 14:09 | New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +6% MTSU | NMSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 8:58 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% MTSU | MTSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 0:14 | Middle Tennessee fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% MTSU | MTSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 13:29 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +6% NMSU | NMSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 12:14 | Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% NMSU | NMSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 7:14 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% NMSU | NMSU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 3:01 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +10% NMSU | NMSU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Middle Tennessee 96% · New Mexico State 4%
- Final margin
- Middle Tennessee by 7
- Luck in points
- 9.0 for New Mexico State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Middle Tennessee by 16.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Middle Tennessee 32% · New Mexico State 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 48 of the 55 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Middle Tennessee · 
New Mexico State
More from Week 14 2025
- Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State JXST 37–34 · replay 44% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Missouri State LT 42–30 · replay 46% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Liberty KENN 48–42 · replay 47% for the winner
- UTEP at Delaware DEL 61–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- Florida International vs Sam Houston FIU 56–16 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner