Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 64 of the 72 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Florida International vs Sam Houston, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida International beat Sam Houston 56–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida International wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Florida International was a 75% favorite.
Final
 Florida International Panthers | 56 |
|---|---|
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Florida International about even · 0 Sam Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida International wins 10, Sam Houston wins 0.
- 1 FIU 73 SHSU 3
- 2 FIU 77 SHSU 17
- 3 FIU 72 SHSU 17
- 4 FIU 73 SHSU 23
- 5 FIU 76 SHSU 30
- 6 FIU 45 SHSU 3
- 7 FIU 54 SHSU 17
- 8 FIU 80 SHSU 48
- 9 FIU 44 SHSU 21
- 10 FIU 54 SHSU 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida International wins 100% of them, Sam Houston 0%. The line is what actually happened: Florida International by 40.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida International by 17+ | 97.5% |
| Florida International by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Florida International by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Pavon, 34 yds made · 77% expected
- N. Grant, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- N. Grant, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
- N. Grant, 24 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Florida International 3 for 15 yards, Sam Houston 7 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:55 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SHSU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:02 | False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FIU +1.9 pts |
| Q1 1:37 | Offside on Sam Houston, 2 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% FIU +7.3 pts |
| Q2 13:00 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FIU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:59 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SHSU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 7:02 | Unnecessary Roughness on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +1% FIU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:02 | Face Mask on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +1% FIU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:13 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FIU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:13 | Delay of Game on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHSU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 4:42 | Illegal Block on Sam Houston, 10 yards | 0% FIU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Sam Houston’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:30 | Florida International was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% FIU | FIU: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 9:28 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +1% SHSU | SHSU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 6:55 | Sam Houston was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedFalse Start on Florida International, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% FIU | SHSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +1% FIU | SHSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 13:00 | C. Pavon made a 34-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for himDelay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% FIU | SHSU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 7:02 | Florida International was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on Sam Houston, 15 yardsJudgment callsFace Mask on Sam Houston, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% FIU | FIU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 4:19 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedN. Grant missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +1% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 12:10 | Florida International was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedSam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 11% expectedSam Houston converted 4th & 183rd & 4th downs · 10% expectedSam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +3% SHSU | FIU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida International 100% · Sam Houston 0%
- Final margin
- Florida International by 40
- Luck in points
- 9.9 for Sam Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida International by 49.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida International 100% · Sam Houston 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 64 of the 72 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Florida International · 
Sam Houston
More from Week 14 2025
- Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State MTSU 31–24 · replay 32% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State JXST 37–34 · replay 44% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Missouri State LT 42–30 · replay 46% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Liberty KENN 48–42 · replay 47% for the winner
- UTEP at Delaware DEL 61–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner