Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisiana Tech beat Missouri State 42–30, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Louisiana Tech wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Missouri State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:15 left): Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 10, worth 10 points of win probability to Louisiana Tech.
Final
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 42 |
|---|---|
 Missouri State Bears | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Louisiana Tech lucky · −54 Missouri State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisiana Tech wins 5, Missouri State wins 5.
- 1 LT 48 MOST 21
- 2 LT 41 MOST 23
- 3 LT 41 MOST 30
- 4 LT 17 MOST 10
- 5 LT 45 MOST 42
- 6 LT 24 MOST 27
- 7 LT 22 MOST 28
- 8 LT 31 MOST 41
- 9 LT 21 MOST 38
- 10 LT 16 MOST 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisiana Tech wins 46% of them, Missouri State 54%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana Tech by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech by 17+ | 12.0% |
| Louisiana Tech by 9–16 | 13.8% |
| Louisiana Tech by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 21.8% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 16.4% |
| Missouri State by 17+ | 14.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Louisiana Tech 9 for 96 yards, Missouri State 5 for 33 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:43 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards | +4% MOST +2.1 pts |
| Q2 13:45 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +4% MOST +2.2 pts |
| Q2 6:36 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +1% MOST +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:03 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +1% MOST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:08 | Delay of Game on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:48 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 8 yards | +8% LT +2.7 pts |
| Q3 10:48 | False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MOST +0.7 pts |
| Q3 7:21 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +2% MOST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:12 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +1% MOST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:12 | Personal Foul on Louisiana Tech, 13 yards | +2% MOST +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:41 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +1% LT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:44 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 13 yards | 0% MOST +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:47 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Missouri State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:43 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedMissouri State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedMissouri State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedMissouri State converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedPass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +8% MOST | MOST: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 4:27 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedLouisiana Tech converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +4% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 13:18 | Louisiana Tech was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +5% MOST | LT: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 12:08 | Louisiana Tech was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expectedMissouri State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedDelay of Game on Missouri State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% MOST | LT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 10:48 | Missouri State was stopped on 4th & 193rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedPass Interference on Missouri State, 8 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% LT | MOST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 6:15 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedLouisiana Tech converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedLouisiana Tech converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +10% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 9:15 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 6:39 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +6% LT | LT: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisiana Tech 94% · Missouri State 6%
- Final margin
- Louisiana Tech by 12
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for Louisiana Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana Tech by 8.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisiana Tech 46% · Missouri State 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Louisiana Tech · 
Missouri State
More from Week 14 2025
- Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State MTSU 31–24 · replay 32% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State JXST 37–34 · replay 44% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Liberty KENN 48–42 · replay 47% for the winner
- UTEP at Delaware DEL 61–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- Florida International vs Sam Houston FIU 56–16 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner