Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
UTEP at Delaware, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Delaware beat UTEP 61–31, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Delaware wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Delaware was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:09 left): Return touchdown by Delaware, worth 12 points of win probability to Delaware.
Final
 UTEP Miners | 31 |
|---|---|
 Delaware Blue Hens | 61 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Delaware about even · −4 UTEP
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UTEP wins 0, Delaware wins 10.
- 1 UTEP 30 DEL 34
- 2 UTEP 17 DEL 28
- 3 UTEP 49 DEL 65
- 4 UTEP 28 DEL 48
- 5 UTEP 21 DEL 45
- 6 UTEP 35 DEL 63
- 7 UTEP 28 DEL 61
- 8 UTEP 10 DEL 49
- 9 UTEP 17 DEL 65
- 10 UTEP 13 DEL 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UTEP wins 4% of them, Delaware 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Delaware by 30.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UTEP by 17+ | 0.5% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 2.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Delaware by 1–8 | 7.1% |
| Delaware by 9–16 | 9.7% |
| Delaware by 17+ | 78.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Reed, 37 yds made · 75% expected
- T. Cragun, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- N. Reed, 20 yds made · 92% expected
- N. Reed, 32 yds made · 82% expected
- N. Reed, 45 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: UTEP 7 for 65 yards, Delaware 8 for 83 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:20 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UTEP, 15 yards | +2% DEL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:30 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards | +1% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:23 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yards | +3% UTEP +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:09 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% UTEP +1.8 pts |
| Q2 9:09 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% DEL +1.7 pts |
| Q2 2:01 | Offside on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:41 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 11 yards | +4% UTEP +2.8 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Delay of Game on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 12:57 | Ineligible Downfield on Delaware, 2 yards, wiping out the play | +3% UTEP +1.5 pts |
| Q3 12:57 | Pass Interference on UTEP, 15 yards | +3% DEL +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:59 | Face Mask on Delaware, 15 yards | +1% UTEP +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:59 | False Start on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:39 | Roughing the Passer on Delaware, 15 yards | +3% UTEP +1.6 pts |
| Q4 8:02 | False Start on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEL +1.5 pts |
| Q4 2:09 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% DEL +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Delaware’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:47 | Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +4% UTEP | DEL: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 5:20 | Delaware was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedUTEP was stopped on 3rd & 273rd & 4th downs · 12% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on UTEP, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% UTEP | DEL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 14:23 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedPass Interference on Delaware, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% UTEP | UTEP: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 11:54 | UTEP was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedDelaware was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedDelaware fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% DEL | UTEP: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 9:09 | UTEP fumbled and Delaware recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Holding on Delaware, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsHolding on UTEP, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsReturn touchdown by DelawareSpecial teams | +12% DEL | UTEP: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 15:00 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedDelay of Game on UTEP, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% DEL | UTEP: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 8:59 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFace Mask on Delaware, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on UTEP, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% DEL | UTEP: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 1:09 | UTEP converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedUTEP’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% UTEP | UTEP: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UTEP 0% · Delaware 100%
- Final margin
- Delaware by 30
- Luck in points
- 4.9 for Delaware
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Delaware by 25.1
- Replay with same day's form
- UTEP 4% · Delaware 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
UTEP · 
Delaware
More from Week 14 2025
- Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State MTSU 31–24 · replay 32% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State JXST 37–34 · replay 44% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Missouri State LT 42–30 · replay 46% for the winner
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- Florida International vs Sam Houston FIU 56–16 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner