luckadjusted
CFB Week 10 · 2026

2026 college football season · October 6, 2026–October 10, 2026

Week 6 2026: upsets, and who deserved to win

19 upsets in Week 6 2026. The biggest: Buffalo beat Toledo 23–8 as 12% underdogs, and deserved it. 8 of 58 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Jacksonville State beat Kennesaw State 27–26 in a game it wins 22% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 6 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 10 of 19 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Buffalo 23–8 @ Toledo 12% 64% Deserved
California 25–20 vs Virginia Tech 23% 49% Coin flip
South Carolina 38–19 @ Florida 25% 70% Deserved
UCLA 17–15 @ Oregon 26% 94% Deserved
Kentucky 35–34 vs LSU 27% 46% Coin flip
Old Dominion 10–3 @ App State 29% 79% Deserved
Oklahoma 27–24 vs Texas 31% 4% Lucky
Wyoming 16–13 @ San José State 39% 48% Coin flip
Georgia Tech 28–25 vs Duke 39% 86% Deserved
Coastal Carolina 27–21 @ Marshall 39% 16% Lucky
North Carolina 21–17 @ Pittsburgh 41% 42% Coin flip
UConn 34–20 @ Temple 41% 41% Coin flip
UNLV 13–7 vs North Dakota State 42% 22% Lucky
South Alabama 56–49 @ Arkansas State 42% 24% Lucky
Iowa 41–24 @ Washington 42% 100% Deserved
Houston 35–16 @ Kansas State 44% 92% Deserved
Georgia 20–17 @ Alabama 44% 61% Deserved
Purdue 41–13 vs Minnesota 44% 92% Deserved
Western Kentucky 34–13 vs Missouri State 46% 91% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 6 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Oklahoma W 27–24 vs Texas 4% +96
2 Coastal Carolina W 27–21 @ Marshall 16% +84
3 James Madison W 27–24 @ Georgia Southern 19% +81
4 Jacksonville State W 27–26 @ Kennesaw State 22% +78
5 UNLV W 13–7 vs North Dakota State 22% +78
6 Eastern Michigan W 25–23 @ Akron 23% +77
7 South Alabama W 56–49 @ Arkansas State 24% +76
8 Boise State W 38–31 @ Fresno State 26% +74
9 UConn W 34–20 @ Temple 41% +59
10 North Carolina W 21–17 @ Pittsburgh 42% +58
11 Kentucky W 35–34 vs LSU 46% +55
12 Wyoming W 16–13 @ San José State 48% +52
13 California W 25–20 vs Virginia Tech 49% +51
14 Louisiana Tech W 32–31 vs Louisiana 50% +50
15 Miami (OH) W 20–19 @ Massachusetts 52% +48
16 Virginia W 28–25 vs Syracuse 59% +41
17 Georgia W 20–17 @ Alabama 61% +39
18 Illinois W 38–37 @ Michigan State 62% +38
19 Florida International W 22–3 vs New Mexico State 63% +37
20 Buffalo W 23–8 @ Toledo 64% +36
21 South Carolina W 38–19 @ Florida 70% +30
22 Utah State W 17–16 vs Washington State 74% +26
23 USC W 31–23 @ Penn State 75% +25
24 Old Dominion W 10–3 @ App State 79% +21
25 Utah W 41–24 vs Kansas 81% +19
26 Army W 20–17 vs Tulane 82% +18
27 Wake Forest W 38–14 @ NC State 84% +16
28 Air Force W 28–7 @ Northern Illinois 86% +14
29 Tennessee W 24–17 @ Arkansas 86% +14
30 Georgia Tech W 28–25 vs Duke 86% +14
31 Indiana W 20–17 @ Nebraska 86% +14
32 Oklahoma State W 42–28 vs UCF 90% +10
33 Arizona W 52–31 @ West Virginia 91% +9
34 Western Kentucky W 34–13 vs Missouri State 91% +9
35 Memphis W 38–13 vs UAB 91% +9
36 Purdue W 41–13 vs Minnesota 92% +8
37 Houston W 35–16 @ Kansas State 92% +8
38 East Carolina W 28–12 vs Rice 93% +7
39 Nevada W 30–13 @ UTEP 93% +7
40 UCLA W 17–15 @ Oregon 94% +6
41 UTSA W 31–24 vs South Florida 95% +5
42 Arizona State W 30–12 vs Hawai'i 96% +4
43 Troy W 55–34 vs Southern Miss 96% +4
44 Missouri W 27–6 vs Texas A&M 96% +4
45 Navy W 34–26 vs Tulsa 97% +3
46 Northwestern W 45–14 vs Ball State 98% +2
47 Louisville W 44–20 vs Florida State 98% +2
48 BYU W 24–10 vs Iowa State 99% +1
49 Liberty W 35–3 vs Sam Houston 100% 0
50 Ole Miss W 52–17 @ Vanderbilt 100% 0
51 Ohio State W 45–16 vs Maryland 100% 0
52 Notre Dame W 58–7 vs Stanford 100% 0
53 Western Michigan W 38–7 vs Kent State 100% 0
54 Iowa W 41–24 @ Washington 100% 0
55 North Texas W 50–10 vs Charlotte 100% 0
56 Ohio W 31–14 vs Central Michigan 100% 0
57 Bowling Green W 38–10 vs Sacramento State 100% 0
58 Oregon State W 66–14 vs San Diego State 100% 0
59 San Diego State L 14–66 @ Oregon State 0% 0
60 Sacramento State L 10–38 @ Bowling Green 0% 0
61 Central Michigan L 14–31 @ Ohio 0% 0
62 Washington L 24–41 vs Iowa 0% 0
63 Charlotte L 10–50 @ North Texas 0% 0
64 Kent State L 7–38 @ Western Michigan 0% 0
65 Stanford L 7–58 @ Notre Dame 0% 0
66 Vanderbilt L 17–52 vs Ole Miss 0% 0
67 Maryland L 16–45 @ Ohio State 0% 0
68 Sam Houston L 3–35 @ Liberty 0% 0
69 Iowa State L 10–24 @ BYU 1% −1
70 Florida State L 20–44 @ Louisville 2% −2
71 Ball State L 14–45 @ Northwestern 2% −2
72 Tulsa L 26–34 @ Navy 3% −3
73 Texas A&M L 6–27 @ Missouri 4% −4
74 Southern Miss L 34–55 @ Troy 4% −4
75 Hawai'i L 12–30 @ Arizona State 4% −4
76 South Florida L 24–31 @ UTSA 5% −5
77 Oregon L 15–17 vs UCLA 6% −6
78 UTEP L 13–30 vs Nevada 7% −7
79 Rice L 12–28 @ East Carolina 7% −7
80 Kansas State L 16–35 vs Houston 8% −8
81 Minnesota L 13–41 @ Purdue 8% −8
82 UAB L 13–38 @ Memphis 9% −9
83 Missouri State L 13–34 @ Western Kentucky 9% −9
84 West Virginia L 31–52 vs Arizona 9% −9
85 UCF L 28–42 @ Oklahoma State 10% −10
86 Nebraska L 17–20 vs Indiana 14% −14
87 Duke L 25–28 @ Georgia Tech 14% −14
88 Arkansas L 17–24 vs Tennessee 14% −14
89 Northern Illinois L 7–28 vs Air Force 14% −14
90 NC State L 14–38 vs Wake Forest 16% −16
91 Tulane L 17–20 @ Army 18% −18
92 Kansas L 24–41 @ Utah 19% −19
93 App State L 3–10 vs Old Dominion 21% −21
94 Penn State L 23–31 vs USC 25% −25
95 Washington State L 16–17 @ Utah State 26% −26
96 Florida L 19–38 vs South Carolina 30% −30
97 Toledo L 8–23 vs Buffalo 36% −36
98 New Mexico State L 3–22 @ Florida International 37% −37
99 Michigan State L 37–38 vs Illinois 38% −38
100 Alabama L 17–20 vs Georgia 39% −39
101 Syracuse L 25–28 @ Virginia 41% −41
102 Massachusetts L 19–20 vs Miami (OH) 48% −48
103 Louisiana L 31–32 @ Louisiana Tech 50% −50
104 Virginia Tech L 20–25 @ California 51% −51
105 San José State L 13–16 vs Wyoming 52% −52
106 LSU L 34–35 @ Kentucky 54% −55
107 Pittsburgh L 17–21 vs North Carolina 58% −58
108 Temple L 20–34 vs UConn 59% −59
109 Fresno State L 31–38 vs Boise State 74% −74
110 Arkansas State L 49–56 vs South Alabama 76% −76
111 Akron L 23–25 vs Eastern Michigan 77% −77
112 North Dakota State L 7–13 @ UNLV 78% −78
113 Kennesaw State L 26–27 vs Jacksonville State 78% −78
114 Georgia Southern L 24–27 vs James Madison 81% −81
115 Marshall L 21–27 vs Coastal Carolina 84% −84
116 Texas L 24–27 vs Oklahoma 96% −96