Independent · 2026 season, in progress
UConn Huskies: luck and expected wins
UConn is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.3 wins. Luck cost 0.3: the 42nd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often UConn wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Lafayette | W 56–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Maryland | L 14–38 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 3 | @ Southern Miss | W 48–20 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 4 | @ Miami (OH) | L 21–24 | 17% | −17 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | UConn win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Syracuse |  UConn by 4.2 | 61% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Temple |  Temple by 0.5 | 49% |
| Week 8 · Oct 23 | vs Massachusetts | UConn by 12.1 | 77% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at Air Force | UConn by 0.5 | 51% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs North Carolina | UConn by 1.5 | 54% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs James Madison |  James Madison by 9.6 | 29% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Old Dominion | UConn by 8.4 | 69% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Wyoming | UConn by 9.7 | 72% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in UConn’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.16 | +4.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.03 | −1.3 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.07 | +1.7 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.10 | +4.6 |
Luckiest wins
Wins UConn takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Florida Atlantic | W 48–45 | 25% | +75 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs Ball State | W 31–25 | 37% | +63 |
| 2025 Week 11 | vs Duke | W 37–34 | 47% | +53 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs Air Force | W 26–16 | 55% | +45 |
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Buffalo | W 20–17 | 71% | +29 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses UConn would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 3 | @ Delaware | L 41–44 | 50% | −50 |
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Syracuse | L 20–27 | 34% | −34 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Rice | L 34–37 | 34% | −34 |
| 2026 Week 4 | @ Miami (OH) | L 21–24 | 17% | −17 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Maryland | L 14–38 | 13% | −13 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9–3 | 7.2 | +1.8 | 4–3 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Central Connecticut | W 59–13 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 2 | @ Syracuse | L 20–27 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 3 | @ Delaware | L 41–44 | 50% | −50 |
| Week 4 | vs Ball State | W 31–25 | 37% | +63 |
| Week 5 | @ Buffalo | W 20–17 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 6 | vs Florida International | W 51–10 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 8 | @ Boston College | W 38–23 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 9 | @ Rice | L 34–37 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 10 | vs UAB | W 38–19 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 11 | vs Duke | W 37–34 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 12 | vs Air Force | W 26–16 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 13 | @ Florida Atlantic | W 48–45 | 25% | +75 |
| Wasabi Fenway Bowl | vs Army | L 16–41 | 3% | −3 |
More
How many wins does UConn have in 2026?
2–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.3 wins.
Was UConn lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: −0.3 wins of luck, the 42nd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was UConn’s luckiest season?
2025: 9–3 from play worth 7.2 wins, +1.8 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 2–2 from play worth 2.3 (−0.3).