luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

UConn at Southern Miss, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

UConn beat Southern Miss 48–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UConn wins 10 of 10.

An off day for Southern Miss: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UConn it would win 34% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers

Before kickoff UConn was a 59% favorite.

Final

UConn Huskies 48
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 20

September 19, 2026 · M. M. Roberts Stadium · Closing line: UConn −3.5

Luck index +1 UConn about even · −1 Southern Miss

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UConn wins 10, Southern Miss wins 0.

  1. 1 CONN 55 USM 0
  2. 2 CONN 59 USM 14
  3. 3 CONN 41 USM 0
  4. 4 CONN 45 USM 10
  5. 5 CONN 35 USM 3
  6. 6 CONN 31 USM 3
  7. 7 CONN 40 USM 14
  8. 8 CONN 35 USM 13
  9. 9 CONN 41 USM 24
  10. 10 CONN 21 USM 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Southern Miss

Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UConn it would win 34% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.

33 points apart for Southern Miss: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
UConn offenseEPA per play gained +0.26 +0.16 better by 0.10
UConn defenseEPA per play allowed −0.11 +0.09 better by 0.20
Southern Miss offenseEPA per play gained −0.11 +0.07 worse by 0.18
Southern Miss defenseEPA per play allowed +0.26 +0.09 worse by 0.17

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

UConn wins 99% of them, Southern Miss 1%. The line is what actually happened: UConn by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UConn by 17+88.8%
UConn by 9–166.9%
UConn by 1–83.6%
Level after regulation0.1%
Southern Miss by 1–80.4%
Southern Miss by 9–160.1%
Southern Miss by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to UConn: the final margin was UConn by 28, without the luck UConn by 25.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Wilbanks, 47 yds made · 57% expected
  • J. O'Connor, 46 yds made · 61% expected
  • C. Wilbanks, 34 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. O'Connor, 29 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UConn 8 for 74 yards, Southern Miss 5 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:49 False Start on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% USM +1.2 pts
Q1 2:37 Face Mask on UConn, 15 yards +2% USM +1.6 pts
Q1 1:28 Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards +1% CONN +0.6 pts
Q2 12:08 Holding on UConn, 10 yards +1% USM +0.6 pts
Q2 9:33 Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 15 yards +1% CONN +1.1 pts
Q2 4:34 Roughing the Passer on UConn, 14 yards +1% USM +1.6 pts
Q2 4:11 Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards +1% CONN +1.5 pts
Q2 2:00 Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% USM +0.8 pts
Q2 1:57 Holding on UConn, 10 yards 0% USM +0.6 pts
Q2 1:35 Offside on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CONN +0.3 pts
Q3 4:38 Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% USM +2.0 pts
Q3 4:08 Intentional Grounding on UConn, 0 yards 0% USM 0.0 pts
Q4 8:26 Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 15 yards 0% CONN +0.8 pts

When it happened

Southern Miss’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Southern Miss was ahead in it, below while UConn was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:49 False Start on UConn, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% USM USM: Turnover
2 Q1 13:22 UConn converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% CONN CONN: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:37 Face Mask on UConn, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% USM USM: Field goal
4 Q1 0:33 Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +1% CONN USM: Field goal
5 Q2 10:00 Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +1% CONN USM: Punt
6 Q2 7:11 Southern Miss converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +2% USM USM: Field goal
7 Q2 4:11 Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% CONN CONN: Punt
8 Q2 2:00 Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% USM USM: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UConn 100% · Southern Miss 0%

Final margin
UConn by 28
Luck in points
2.5 for UConn
Luck-adjusted margin
UConn by 25.5
Replay with same day's form
UConn 99% · Southern Miss 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · UConn · Southern Miss

More from Week 3 2026

Every week 3 game, 2026