luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Jacksonville State beat Georgia Southern 31–27, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Georgia Southern had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Georgia Southern.

Before kickoff Jacksonville State was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:16 left): Return touchdown by Jacksonville State, worth 31 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.

Final

Georgia Southern Eagles 27
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 31

September 19, 2026 · AmFirst Stadium · Closing line: Jacksonville State −3.5

Luck index +33 Jacksonville State lucky · −33 Georgia Southern

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Georgia Southern wins 3, Jacksonville State wins 7.

  1. 1 GASO 42 JXST 24
  2. 2 GASO 28 JXST 21
  3. 3 GASO 17 JXST 14
  4. 4 GASO 14 JXST 17
  5. 5 GASO 20 JXST 24
  6. 6 GASO 14 JXST 21
  7. 7 GASO 40 JXST 50
  8. 8 GASO 17 JXST 31
  9. 9 GASO 17 JXST 35
  10. 10 GASO 7 JXST 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Georgia Southern wins 33% of them, Jacksonville State 67%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jacksonville State by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Georgia Southern by 17+5.8%
Georgia Southern by 9–168.3%
Georgia Southern by 1–815.6%
Level after regulation5.1%
Jacksonville State by 1–822.8%
Jacksonville State by 9–1618.0%
Jacksonville State by 17+24.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to Georgia Southern: the final margin was Jacksonville State by 4, without the luck Jacksonville State by 10.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Bryant, 22 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Rippa, 35 yds made · 80% expected
  • T. Bryant, 43 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Georgia Southern 7 for 59 yards, Jacksonville State 8 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:10 False Start on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JXST +0.7 pts
Q2 9:50 Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yards +2% JXST +1.1 pts
Q2 2:04 Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 15 yards +3% GASO +1.2 pts
Q2 2:04 Offside on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GASO +0.6 pts
Q3 15:00 Ineligible Downfield on Jacksonville State, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% GASO +2.0 pts
Q3 7:39 Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards +2% JXST +0.6 pts
Q3 2:06 Personal Foul on Jacksonville State, 15 yards +2% GASO +0.9 pts
Q4 14:38 Illegal Formation on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JXST +0.4 pts
Q4 14:27 Illegal Block on Georgia Southern, 6 yards +1% JXST +0.4 pts
Q4 14:27 False Start on Georgia Southern, 3 yards · pre-snap +1% JXST +0.4 pts
Q4 12:50 Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yards +3% JXST +1.1 pts
Q4 7:15 Delay of Game on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% GASO +1.2 pts
Q4 7:15 False Start on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap +12% JXST +0.4 pts
Q4 2:46 Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 5 yards +17% GASO +2.6 pts
Q4 2:46 Offside on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% GASO +0.7 pts

When it happened

Jacksonville State’s chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Jacksonville State was ahead in it, below while Georgia Southern was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:13 Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% GASO GASO: Punt
2 Q2 12:16 Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedJacksonville State fumbled and Georgia Southern recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GASO GASO: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:50 Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedJacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedPass Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% GASO GASO: Punt
4 Q3 2:06 T. Bryant made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for himPersonal Foul on Jacksonville State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% GASO GASO: Punt
5 Q4 12:50 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedPass Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% JXST JXST: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:16 Return touchdown by Jacksonville StateSpecial teams +31% JXST JXST: End of game
7 Q4 7:15 Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedGeorgia Southern converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedGeorgia Southern was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedDelay of Game on Jacksonville State, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Georgia Southern, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% JXST GASO: Turnover
8 Q4 2:46 Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 5 yardsJudgment callsOffside on Jacksonville State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +24% GASO GASO: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Georgia Southern 4% · Jacksonville State 96%

Final margin
Jacksonville State by 4
Luck in points
6.3 for Georgia Southern
Luck-adjusted margin
Jacksonville State by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Georgia Southern 33% · Jacksonville State 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Georgia Southern · Jacksonville State

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