Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Florida International at Florida Atlantic, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Florida Atlantic beat Florida International 16–10, but the replays lean toward Florida International: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Florida Atlantic won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida International it would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%. The numbers
Before kickoff Florida Atlantic was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:38 left): Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards, worth 8 points of win probability to Florida International.
Final
 Florida International Panthers | 10 |
|---|---|
 Florida Atlantic Owls | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +69 Florida Atlantic very lucky · −69 Florida International
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida International wins 7, Florida Atlantic wins 3.
- 1 FIU 28 FAU 0
- 2 FIU 23 FAU 3
- 3 FIU 20 FAU 3
- 4 FIU 20 FAU 6
- 5 FIU 13 FAU 3
- 6 FIU 13 FAU 7
- 7 FIU 9 FAU 6
- 8 FIU 7 FAU 10
- 9 FIU 7 FAU 17
- 10 FIU 6 FAU 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Florida Atlantic won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida International it would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for Florida Atlantic: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida International offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.05 | worse by 0.13 |
| Florida International defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.19 | +0.04 | better by 0.23 |
| Florida Atlantic offenseEPA per play gained | −0.19 | +0.11 | worse by 0.29 |
| Florida Atlantic defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.11 | better by 0.19 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida International wins 69% of them, Florida Atlantic 31%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida Atlantic by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida International by 17+ | 24.4% |
| Florida International by 9–16 | 21.9% |
| Florida International by 1–8 | 20.3% |
| Level after regulation | 5.6% |
| Florida Atlantic by 1–8 | 14.4% |
| Florida Atlantic by 9–16 | 9.1% |
| Florida Atlantic by 17+ | 4.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Rogers, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
- C. Rogers, 24 yds made · 91% expected
- R. Czeremcha, 46 yds missed · 62% expected
- C. Rogers, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- C. Rogers, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- R. Czeremcha, 36 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: Florida International 9 for 80 yards, Florida Atlantic 10 for 81 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:18 | Illegal Block on Florida International, 11 yards | +1% FAU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 8:32 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FIU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 3:19 | Illegal Block on Florida International, 15 yards | +3% FIU +1.8 pts |
| Q1 3:19 | Illegal Block on Florida International, 11 yards | +3% FAU +1.9 pts |
| Q1 2:35 | Personal Foul on Florida International, 9 yards | +2% FAU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 0:11 | Face Mask on Florida International, 9 yards | +2% FAU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 6:45 | Illegal Shift on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FIU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:51 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | +2% FIU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:30 | Illegal Use of Hands on Florida Atlantic, 3 yards | +2% FIU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:04 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FAU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:01 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | +3% FAU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:00 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FAU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:55 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 8 yards, wiping out the play | +6% FIU +3.1 pts |
| Q4 13:23 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | +3% FIU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 13:23 | Illegal Snap on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FIU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:00 | Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards | +4% FIU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 10:00 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FAU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:00 | Illegal Formation on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FIU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:38 | Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards | +8% FIU +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Florida Atlantic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:23 | Florida International converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +5% FIU | FIU: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 12:23 | Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% FAU | FAU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 3:55 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% FIU | FIU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 5:32 | Florida Atlantic was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +7% FIU | FAU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 5:27 | Florida International was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +8% FAU | FIU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 4:00 | Florida International was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedIllegal Formation on Florida Atlantic, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% FAU | FIU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 2:38 | Florida International was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% FAU | FIU: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:38 | Florida International converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedFlorida International was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedPass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% FIU | FIU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida International 2% · Florida Atlantic 98%
- Final margin
- Florida Atlantic by 6
- Luck in points
- 9.0 for Florida International
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida Atlantic by 15.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida International 69% · Florida Atlantic 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Florida International · 
Florida Atlantic
More from Week 3 2026
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- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- East Carolina at Old Dominion ECU 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State JXST 31–27 · replay 67% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Delaware DEL 22–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- UAB at Louisiana UL 21–14 · replay 74% for the winner
- Charlotte at App State APP 26–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Nevada at Middle Tennessee MTSU 27–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner
- Tulane at Kansas State KSU 31–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Texas State TXST 49–35 · replay 92% for the winner
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