Conference USA · 2026 season, in progress

Florida International Panthers: luck and expected wins

Florida International is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.9 wins. Luck cost 0.9: the 13th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Florida International wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ South Florida	L 9–19	56%	−56
Week 2	vs Buffalo	W 33–20	95%	+5
Week 3	@ Florida Atlantic	L 10–16	69%	−69
Week 4	vs Long Island University	W 20–3	72%	+28

Wk 1 −56 @ USF

Wk 2 +5 vs BUF

Wk 3 −69 @ FAU

Wk 4 +28 vs LIU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Florida International win chance
Week 6 · Oct 7	vs New Mexico State	Florida International by 8.4	70%
Week 7 · Oct 13	at Jacksonville State	Jacksonville State by 6.8	34%
Week 8 · Oct 20	vs Middle Tennessee	Florida International by 7.3	67%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Liberty	Liberty by 11.4	25%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Missouri State	Florida International by 5.2	62%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Delaware	Delaware by 3.6	42%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Kennesaw State	Kennesaw State by 4.5	39%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Sam Houston	Florida International by 5.8	63%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Florida International’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	−0.10	+2.5
Kicks	−0.11	−7.4
Pre-snap flags	−0.14	−7.0

Luckiest wins

Wins Florida International takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 3	vs Florida Atlantic	W 38–28	31%	+69
2025 Week 8	@ Western Kentucky	W 25–6	33%	+67
2025 Week 13	vs Jacksonville State	W 27–21	42%	+58
2025 Week 12	vs Liberty	W 34–27	65%	+35
2026 Week 4	vs Long Island University	W 20–3	72%	+28

Unluckiest losses

Losses Florida International would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 3	@ Florida Atlantic	L 10–16	69%	−69
2026 Week 1	@ South Florida	L 9–19	56%	−56
2025 Week 10	@ Missouri State	L 21–28	41%	−41
2025 Week 4	vs Delaware	L 16–38	15%	−15
2025 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl	vs UTSA	L 20–57	5%	−5

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	7–5	5.3	+1.7	2–1	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Bethune-Cookman	W 42–9	98%	+2
Week 2	@ Penn State	L 0–34	1%	−1
Week 3	vs Florida Atlantic	W 38–28	31%	+69
Week 4	vs Delaware	L 16–38	15%	−15
Week 6	@ UConn	L 10–51	3%	−3
Week 8	@ Western Kentucky	W 25–6	33%	+67
Week 9	vs Kennesaw State	L 26–45	2%	−2
Week 10	@ Missouri State	L 21–28	41%	−41
Week 11	@ Middle Tennessee	W 56–30	98%	+2
Week 12	vs Liberty	W 34–27	65%	+35
Week 13	vs Jacksonville State	W 27–21	42%	+58
Week 14	vs Sam Houston	W 56–16	100%	0
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl	vs UTSA	L 20–57	5%	−5