Conference USA · 2026 season, in progress

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: luck and expected wins

Middle Tennessee is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.4 wins. Luck cost 0.4: the 34th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often Middle Tennessee wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Murray State	W 38–14	95%	+5
Week 2	@ Marshall	L 26–28	57%	−57
Week 3	vs Nevada	W 27–20	84%	+16
Week 4	@ Jacksonville State	L 13–23	2%	−2

Wk 1 +5 vs MUR

Wk 2 −57 @ MRSH

Wk 3 +16 vs NEV

Wk 4 −2 @ JXST

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Middle Tennessee win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Kansas	Kansas by 17.0	14%
Week 7 · Oct 13	vs Delaware	Delaware by 1.5	46%
Week 8 · Oct 20	at Florida International	Florida International by 7.3	33%
Week 9 · Oct 28	vs Kennesaw State	Kennesaw State by 2.5	44%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee by 1.7	54%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Liberty	Liberty by 15.6	18%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Sam Houston	Sam Houston by 4.7	39%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs New Mexico State	Middle Tennessee by 4.2	60%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Middle Tennessee’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.08	+6.2
Kicks	+0.04	+1.3
3rd & 4th downs	−0.04	+2.3
Pre-snap flags	−0.21	−5.8

Luckiest wins

Wins Middle Tennessee takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 3	@ Nevada	W 14–13	21%	+79
2025 Week 14	@ New Mexico State	W 31–24	32%	+68
2025 Week 13	vs Sam Houston	W 31–17	81%	+19
2026 Week 3	vs Nevada	W 27–20	84%	+16
2026 Week 1	vs Murray State	W 38–14	95%	+5

Unluckiest losses

Losses Middle Tennessee would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 7	vs Missouri State	L 20–22	60%	−60
2025 Week 9	@ Delaware	L 28–31	58%	−58
2026 Week 2	@ Marshall	L 26–28	57%	−57
2025 Week 4	vs Marshall	L 28–42	53%	−53
2025 Week 5	@ Kennesaw State	L 16–24	36%	−36

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	3–9	3.8	−0.8	2–4	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Austin Peay	L 14–34	8%	−8
Week 2	@ Wisconsin	L 10–42	1%	−1
Week 3	@ Nevada	W 14–13	21%	+79
Week 4	vs Marshall	L 28–42	53%	−53
Week 5	@ Kennesaw State	L 16–24	36%	−36
Week 7	vs Missouri State	L 20–22	60%	−60
Week 9	@ Delaware	L 28–31	58%	−58
Week 10	vs Jacksonville State	L 21–24	25%	−25
Week 11	vs Florida International	L 30–56	2%	−2
Week 12	@ Western Kentucky	L 26–42	7%	−7
Week 13	vs Sam Houston	W 31–17	81%	+19
Week 14	@ New Mexico State	W 31–24	32%	+68