Conference USA · 2026 season, in progress
New Mexico State Aggies: luck and expected wins
New Mexico State is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.8 wins. Luck cost 0.8: the 19th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often New Mexico State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Florida State | L 17–34 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 1 | vs Mercyhurst | W 51–14 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 2 | @ Hawai'i | L 19–29 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 4 | vs New Mexico | L 18–42 | 6% | −6 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | New Mexico State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 1 | vs Western Kentucky |  New Mexico State by 0.6 | 52% |
| Week 6 · Oct 7 | at Florida International |  Florida International by 8.4 | 30% |
| Week 8 · Oct 21 | at Sam Houston |  Sam Houston by 5.8 | 36% |
| Week 9 · Oct 28 | vs Jacksonville State |  Jacksonville State by 5.8 | 36% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Liberty |  Liberty by 10.3 | 27% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Missouri State |  Missouri State by 6.3 | 35% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Delaware |  Delaware by 2.5 | 44% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Middle Tennessee |  Middle Tennessee by 4.2 | 40% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in New Mexico State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.13 | +4.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.03 | −2.0 |
| Kicks | −0.09 | −6.3 |
Luckiest wins
Wins New Mexico State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Tulsa | W 21–14 | 24% | +76 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ UTEP | W 34–31 | 53% | +47 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Bryant | W 19–3 | 79% | +21 |
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Sam Houston | W 37–10 | 83% | +17 |
| 2026 Week 1 | vs Mercyhurst | W 51–14 | 96% | +4 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses New Mexico State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Middle Tennessee | L 24–31 | 68% | −68 |
| 2025 Week 8 | @ Liberty | L 27–30 | 58% | −58 |
| 2025 Week 9 | vs Missouri State | L 17–24 | 56% | −56 |
| 2026 Week 2 | @ Hawai'i | L 19–29 | 56% | −56 |
| 2025 Week 11 | vs Kennesaw State | L 21–24 | 39% | −39 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4–8 | 4.7 | −0.7 | 2–4 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Bryant | W 19–3 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 2 | vs Tulsa | W 21–14 | 24% | +76 |
| Week 3 | @ Louisiana Tech | L 14–49 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 5 | @ New Mexico | L 20–38 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 6 | vs Sam Houston | W 37–10 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 8 | @ Liberty | L 27–30 | 58% | −58 |
| Week 9 | vs Missouri State | L 17–24 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 10 | @ Western Kentucky | L 16–35 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 11 | vs Kennesaw State | L 21–24 | 39% | −39 |
| Week 12 | @ Tennessee | L 9–42 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 13 | @ UTEP | W 34–31 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 14 | vs Middle Tennessee | L 24–31 | 68% | −68 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Conference USA teams by luck
- Conference USA: Delaware, Florida International, Jacksonville State,
Kennesaw State, Liberty, Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, Sam Houston, 
Western Kentucky
How many wins does New Mexico State have in 2026?
1–3 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.8 wins.
Was New Mexico State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −0.8 wins of luck, the 19th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was New Mexico State’s luckiest season?
2025: 4–8 from play worth 4.7 wins, −0.7 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 1–3 from play worth 1.8 (−0.8).