Conference USA · 2026 season, in progress

Kennesaw State Owls: luck and expected wins

Kennesaw State is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.8 wins. Luck cost 0.8: the 16th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Kennesaw State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs West Georgia	W 47–0	100%	0
Week 2	vs Georgia State	L 17–31	38%	−38
Week 3	@ Tennessee	L 9–42	1%	−1
Week 4	@ Arkansas State	L 14–17	44%	−44

Wk 1 0 vs WGA

Wk 2 −38 vs GAST

Wk 3 −1 @ TENN

Wk 4 −44 @ ARST

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Kennesaw State win chance
Week 6 · Oct 7	vs Jacksonville State	Kennesaw State by 0.8	52%
Week 7 · Oct 14	at Missouri State	Kennesaw State by 0.3	51%
Week 8 · Oct 22	vs Liberty	Liberty by 3.7	41%
Week 9 · Oct 28	at Middle Tennessee	Kennesaw State by 2.5	56%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Delaware	Kennesaw State by 4.1	60%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Sam Houston	Kennesaw State by 0.9	52%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Florida International	Kennesaw State by 4.5	61%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Western Kentucky	Kennesaw State by 1.0	52%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Kennesaw State’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.03	+5.3
Fumble bounces	−0.04	−0.2
3rd & 4th downs	−0.05	−2.2
Kicks	−0.06	−2.9

Luckiest wins

Wins Kennesaw State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 13	vs Missouri State	W 41–34	23%	+77
2025 Week 15	@ Jacksonville State	W 19–15	39%	+61
2025 Week 14	@ Liberty	W 48–42	47%	+54
2025 Week 11	@ New Mexico State	W 24–21	61%	+39
2025 Week 5	vs Middle Tennessee	W 24–16	64%	+36

Unluckiest losses

Losses Kennesaw State would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 4	@ Arkansas State	L 14–17	44%	−44
2026 Week 2	vs Georgia State	L 17–31	38%	−38
2025 Week 12	@ Jacksonville State	L 26–35	36%	−36
2025 Week 1	@ Wake Forest	L 9–10	21%	−21
2026 Week 3	@ Tennessee	L 9–42	1%	−1

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	10–3	7.3	+2.7	6–1	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Wake Forest	L 9–10	21%	−21
Week 2	@ Indiana	L 9–56	1%	−1
Week 3	vs Merrimack	W 27–13	88%	+12
Week 4	vs Arkansas State	W 28–21	88%	+12
Week 5	vs Middle Tennessee	W 24–16	64%	+36
Week 7	vs Louisiana Tech	W 35–7	92%	+8
Week 9	@ Florida International	W 45–26	98%	+2
Week 10	vs UTEP	W 33–20	76%	+24
Week 11	@ New Mexico State	W 24–21	61%	+39
Week 12	@ Jacksonville State	L 26–35	36%	−36
Week 13	vs Missouri State	W 41–34	23%	+77
Week 14	@ Liberty	W 48–42	47%	+54
Week 15	@ Jacksonville State	W 19–15	39%	+61
Myrtle Beach Bowl	vs Western Michigan	L 6–41	1%	−1