Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Kennesaw State at Liberty, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Kennesaw State beat Liberty 48–42, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Kennesaw State wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Kennesaw State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (2OT): Kennesaw State’s two-point try failed, worth 22 points of win probability to Liberty.
Final (OT)
 Kennesaw State Owls | 48 |
|---|---|
 Liberty Flames | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Kennesaw State lucky · −54 Liberty
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kennesaw State wins 5, Liberty wins 5.
- 1 KENN 46 LIB 21
- 2 KENN 48 LIB 31
- 3 KENN 31 LIB 21
- 4 KENN 30 LIB 24
- 5 KENN 20 LIB 17
- 6 KENN 26 LIB 28
- 7 KENN 17 LIB 24
- 8 KENN 14 LIB 27
- 9 KENN 20 LIB 38
- 10 KENN 17 LIB 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kennesaw State wins 46% of them, Liberty 54%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kennesaw State by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kennesaw State by 17+ | 12.4% |
| Kennesaw State by 9–16 | 13.0% |
| Kennesaw State by 1–8 | 20.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 21.1% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 16.1% |
| Liberty by 17+ | 14.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Kennesaw State 7 for 49 yards, Liberty 6 for 62 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:30 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:12 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.3 pts |
| Q1 4:50 | Ineligible Downfield on Liberty, 5 yards | +2% KENN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:48 | Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | +5% LIB +2.4 pts |
| Q2 8:45 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% LIB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:47 | Face Mask on Liberty, 6 yards | +1% KENN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:08 | Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 4 yards | +7% KENN +3.0 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Face Mask on Liberty, 15 yards | +4% KENN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% LIB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:14 | Pass Interference on Liberty, 11 yards | +3% KENN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:09 | Illegal Shift on Kennesaw State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +18% LIB +4.7 pts |
| Q4 13:32 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards | +6% KENN +1.8 pts |
| Q4 9:57 | Face Mask on Liberty, 15 yards | +8% KENN +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Liberty’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:08 | Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 4 yardsJudgment calls | +7% KENN | LIB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 12:55 | Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +10% KENN | KENN: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 2:09 | Illegal Shift on Kennesaw State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +18% LIB | LIB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 13:32 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 10:43 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +7% KENN | LIB: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 9:57 | Face Mask on Liberty, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:20 | Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% LIB | KENN: Punt |
| 8 | 2OT | Kennesaw State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +22% LIB | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kennesaw State 85% · Liberty 15%
- Final margin
- Kennesaw State by 6
- Luck in points
- 2.1 for Liberty
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kennesaw State by 8.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Kennesaw State 46% · Liberty 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Kennesaw State · 
Liberty
More from Week 14 2025
- Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State MTSU 31–24 · replay 32% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State JXST 37–34 · replay 44% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Missouri State LT 42–30 · replay 46% for the winner
- UTEP at Delaware DEL 61–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- Florida International vs Sam Houston FIU 56–16 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner