2026 college football season · after Week 4

College football standings 2026, adjusted for luck

The 2026 standings so far, and the same games with every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and referee call re-rolled. Without that luck, 8 conference title games would have a different matchup if the season ended today.

Conference record: regular-season games between two teams of the same conference. Adjusted: each of those games counted at how often the team wins it replayed with only the luck re-rolled (the coin-flip replay). Ranks compare win shares, so teams with fewer games aren’t behind; ties go to the overall record, then point differential. Luck rankings

Group by

Big Ten ACC Big 12 SEC American Sun Belt MAC Conference USA Mountain West Pac-12

Big Ten

Adjusted for luck, Ohio State would be in the title game if the season ended today instead of Indiana.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1▲4	5	Ohio State	1–0	1.0–0.0	3–1	−0.7	✓
2	2	Nebraska	1–0	1.0–0.0	4–0	0.0	✓
3▼2	1	Indiana	1–0	1.0–0.0	4–0	0.0	out
4▼1	3	UCLA	2–0	1.9–0.1	4–0	+0.1
5▲1	6	Oregon	1–0	0.8–0.2	3–1	−0.1
6▲1	7	Minnesota	1–0	0.8–0.2	3–1	+0.2
7▲1	8	Wisconsin	1–0	0.8–0.2	3–1	+0.2
8▲1	9	USC	1–1	1.0–1.0	4–1	0.0
9▼5	4	Iowa	1–0	0.5–0.5	4–0	+0.7
10▲2	12	Michigan	0–1	0.5–0.5	3–1	0.0
11▼1	10	Penn State	0–1	0.2–0.8	3–1	−0.2
12▼1	11	Washington	0–1	0.2–0.8	3–1	+0.1
13▲4	17	Rutgers	0–1	0.1–0.9	1–3	−0.4
14▲4	18	Purdue	0–1	0.1–0.9	1–3	−0.9
15▼2	13	Northwestern	0–1	0.0–1.0	2–1	0.0
16	16	Michigan State	0–1	0.0–1.0	2–2	+0.9
17▼3	14	Illinois	0–1	0.0–1.0	2–2	−0.4
18▼3	15	Maryland	0–1	0.0–1.0	2–2	−0.1

ACC

Adjusted for luck, Duke and Virginia would be in the title game if the season ended today instead of Miami and Pittsburgh.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1▲3	4	Duke	1–0	1.0–0.0	4–0	+0.7	✓
2▲3	5	Virginia	1–0	1.0–0.0	3–1	−0.1	✓
3▼2	1	Miami	2–0	2.0–0.0	4–0	0.0	out
4▼1	3	Virginia Tech	1–0	1.0–0.0	4–0	+0.2
5▼3	2	Pittsburgh	1–0	1.0–0.0	4–0	+0.2	out
6	6	Clemson	2–0	1.3–0.7	3–1	+1.0
7▲3	10	California	1–1	1.2–0.8	2–2	−0.2
8▲6	14	Florida State	0–1	0.6–0.4	2–2	−0.6
9	9	Louisville	1–1	1.0–1.0	2–2	−0.3
10▼2	8	Wake Forest	1–1	0.9–1.1	3–1	+0.9
11▲1	12	North Carolina	0–1	0.4–0.6	2–1	−0.2
12▲5	17	Georgia Tech	0–1	0.3–0.7	1–3	−1.3
13▼6	7	SMU	1–1	0.5–1.5	3–1	+0.5
14▼3	11	Stanford	1–2	0.7–2.3	2–2	+0.3
15▲1	16	Syracuse	0–2	0.1–1.9	1–2	−0.1
16▼1	15	Boston College	0–1	0.0–1.0	2–2	0.0
17▼4	13	NC State	0–1	0.0–1.0	2–2	+0.3

Big 12

Adjusted for luck, Oklahoma State would be in the title game if the season ended today instead of BYU.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1	1	Utah	1–0	1.0–0.0	4–0	0.0	✓
2▲4	6	Oklahoma State	1–0	1.0–0.0	3–1	+0.3	✓
3▲2	5	UCF	1–0	1.0–0.0	3–1	−0.1
4▼2	2	BYU	1–0	0.9–0.1	3–0	+0.1	out
5▼1	4	Texas Tech	1–0	0.8–0.2	4–0	+0.5
6▲2	8	Arizona State	1–0	0.7–0.3	2–1	+0.3
7	7	Baylor	1–0	0.6–0.4	3–1	0.0
8▼5	3	Cincinnati	1–0	0.6–0.4	4–0	+0.6
9	9	Kansas State	0–1	0.4–0.6	3–1	−0.1
10▲5	15	Colorado	0–1	0.4–0.6	2–2	+0.6
11▲5	16	Kansas	0–1	0.3–0.7	1–2	−0.3
12▼2	10	Houston	0–1	0.2–0.8	3–1	−0.2
13▼2	11	Arizona	0–1	0.1–0.9	3–1	+0.3
14▼1	13	TCU	0–1	0.0–1.0	2–2	−0.2
15▼3	12	West Virginia	0–1	0.0–1.0	3–1	+0.6
16▼2	14	Iowa State	0–1	0.0–1.0	2–2	−0.2

SEC

Adjusted for luck, Alabama would be in the title game if the season ended today instead of Florida.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1	1	Georgia	2–0	2.0–0.0	4–0	0.0	✓
2▲1	3	Alabama	2–0	2.0–0.0	4–0	0.0	✓
3▼1	2	Florida	2–0	1.9–0.1	4–0	+0.1	out
4	4	Mississippi State	2–0	1.6–0.4	4–0	+0.4
5	5	Texas	1–0	0.6–0.4	4–0	+1.1
6	6	LSU	1–1	1.2–0.8	3–1	−0.2
7	7	Kentucky	1–1	1.0–1.0	3–1	0.0
8▲1	9	Ole Miss	1–1	0.8–1.2	3–1	+0.4
9▲3	12	Vanderbilt	0–1	0.4–0.6	3–1	−0.1
10	10	Tennessee	0–1	0.4–0.6	3–1	−0.4
11▼3	8	Auburn	1–1	0.7–1.3	3–1	+0.7
12▼1	11	Missouri	0–1	0.3–0.7	3–1	−0.3
13	13	South Carolina	0–2	0.0–2.0	2–2	0.0
14▲1	15	Oklahoma	0–1	0.0–1.0	2–2	−0.4
15▼1	14	Texas A&M	0–2	0.0–2.0	2–2	0.0
16	16	Arkansas	0–1	0.0–1.0	2–2	+0.2

American

Adjusted for luck, Temple and UAB would be in the title game if the season ended today instead of South Florida and Florida Atlantic.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1▲11	12	Temple	0–1	1.0–0.0	1–3	−1.0	✓
2▲1	3	UAB	1–0	0.7–0.3	2–2	+0.4	✓
3▼2	1	South Florida	1–0	0.6–0.4	4–0	+1.3	out
4▼2	2	Florida Atlantic	1–0	0.5–0.5	3–1	+0.6	out
5▲6	11	Navy	0–2	0.8–1.2	1–2	−0.8
6▼2	4	Army	1–1	0.4–1.6	2–1	+0.6
7▼2	5	Tulsa	–	–	3–1	+0.1
8▼1	7	UTSA	–	–	3–1	+0.4
9	9	East Carolina	–	–	2–2	−0.6
10▼4	6	Memphis	–	–	3–1	+0.4
11▼3	8	North Texas	–	–	2–2	0.0
12▲1	13	Rice	–	–	1–3	−0.9
13▼3	10	Tulane	–	–	2–2	+0.8
14	14	Charlotte	–	–	0–4	−1.1

Sun Belt

Adjusted for luck, Old Dominion would be in the title game if the season ended today instead of Georgia State.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1	1	James Madison	1–0	1.0–0.0	4–0	+0.3	✓
2▲11	13	Old Dominion	0–1	0.0–1.0	1–3	−0.2	✓
3▼1	2	Georgia State	–	–	3–1	0.0	out
4	4	Louisiana	–	–	3–1	+0.4
5▼2	3	App State	–	–	3–1	+0.8
6▲6	12	Southern Miss	–	–	1–3	−0.9
7	7	South Alabama	–	–	2–2	+0.2
8	8	Troy	–	–	2–2	+0.3
9▲1	10	Coastal Carolina	–	–	1–3	−0.6
10▼4	6	Arkansas State	–	–	2–2	+0.5
11▼6	5	Marshall	–	–	3–1	+1.6
12▼3	9	Louisiana Tech	–	–	1–2	0.0
13▼2	11	Georgia Southern	–	–	1–3	−0.3
14	14	UL Monroe	–	–	0–4	−1.0

MAC

Adjusted for luck, Eastern Michigan would be in the title game if the season ended today instead of Kent State.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1	1	Massachusetts	1–0	1.0–0.0	4–0	+0.1	✓
2▲1	3	Eastern Michigan	1–0	0.9–0.1	2–3	−0.5	✓
3▼1	2	Kent State	1–0	0.9–0.1	2–2	+0.1	out
4▲7	11	Ball State	0–1	0.1–0.9	1–3	−0.1
5▲7	12	Sacramento State	0–2	0.1–1.9	1–4	−0.1
6▼2	4	Toledo	–	–	3–1	−0.9
7▲2	9	Central Michigan	–	–	2–2	+0.1
8▼2	6	Ohio	–	–	2–2	+0.1
9▼2	7	Miami (OH)	–	–	2–2	+0.2
10▼5	5	Western Michigan	–	–	2–2	+0.8
11▼3	8	Buffalo	–	–	2–2	+0.8
12▼2	10	Akron	–	–	1–3	0.0
13	13	Bowling Green	–	–	0–4	0.0

Conference USA

Adjusted for luck, Middle Tennessee would be in the title game if the season ended today instead of Liberty.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1	1	Jacksonville State	1–0	1.0–0.0	3–2	−0.3	✓
2▲1	3	Middle Tennessee	0–1	0.0–1.0	2–2	−0.3	✓
3▼1	2	Liberty	–	–	3–1	−0.3	out
4	4	Florida International	–	–	2–2	−0.8
5	5	Delaware	–	–	2–2	0.0
6▲3	9	Missouri State	–	–	1–3	−0.9
7▼1	6	Sam Houston	–	–	1–3	−0.6
8▼1	7	Kennesaw State	–	–	1–3	−0.6
9▼1	8	New Mexico State	–	–	1–3	0.0
10	10	Western Kentucky	–	–	1–3	0.0

Mountain West

UNLV and North Dakota State lead either way.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1▲1	2	UNLV	1–0	1.0–0.0	2–2	−0.4	✓
2▼1	1	North Dakota State	1–0	0.6–0.4	4–0	+0.4	✓
3▲1	4	Air Force	1–1	1.0–1.0	2–1	0.0
4▼1	3	Wyoming	1–0	0.4–0.6	2–2	+0.6
5▲2	7	Nevada	0–1	0.4–0.6	1–3	−0.7
6▲2	8	Hawai'i	0–2	0.6–1.4	1–3	−0.6
7▼2	5	New Mexico	–	–	3–1	−0.1
8▼2	6	San José State	–	–	2–2	+0.3
9	9	UTEP	–	–	1–3	0.0
10	10	Northern Illinois	–	–	0–4	−0.7

Pac-12

No conference games yet.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck
1	1	Boise State	–	–	3–1	0.0
2	2	Fresno State	–	–	3–1	+0.4
3	3	Oregon State	–	–	2–2	−0.3
4▲1	5	Texas State	–	–	2–2	−0.3
5▼1	4	Colorado State	–	–	2–2	0.0
6	6	Washington State	–	–	1–3	−0.6
7▲1	8	Utah State	–	–	1–3	−0.5
8▼1	7	San Diego State	–	–	1–3	0.0

Power 4

SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC. Every team by its overall record adjusted for luck.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Record	Coin-flip wins	Luck
1▲3	4	Utah Big 12	4–0	4.0	0.0
2▲5	7	Nebraska Big Ten	4–0	4.0	0.0
3▼2	1	Miami ACC	4–0	4.0	0.0
4▼2	2	Georgia SEC	4–0	4.0	0.0
5▼2	3	Indiana Big Ten	4–0	4.0	0.0
6▲2	8	Alabama SEC	4–0	4.0	0.0
7▲3	10	UCLA Big Ten	4–0	3.9	+0.1
8▲6	14	BYU Big 12	3–0	2.9	+0.1
9▼4	5	Florida SEC	4–0	3.9	+0.1
10▼1	9	Virginia Tech ACC	4–0	3.8	+0.2
11▼5	6	Pittsburgh ACC	4–0	3.8	+0.2
12▲7	19	Ohio State Big Ten	3–1	3.7	−0.7
13	13	Mississippi State SEC	4–0	3.6	+0.4
14▲3	17	Texas Tech Big 12	4–0	3.5	+0.5
15▲8	23	Tennessee SEC	3–1	3.4	−0.4
16▼1	15	Cincinnati Big 12	4–0	3.4	+0.6
17▼5	12	Iowa Big Ten	4–0	3.3	+0.7
18▲13	31	Missouri SEC	3–1	3.3	−0.3
19▼8	11	Duke ACC	4–0	3.3	+0.7
20▼2	18	USC Big Ten	4–1	4.0	0.0
21▲1	22	Penn State Big Ten	3–1	3.2	−0.2
22▲4	26	LSU SEC	3–1	3.2	−0.2
23▲2	25	Houston Big 12	3–1	3.2	−0.2
24	24	Oregon Big Ten	3–1	3.1	−0.1
25▼4	21	Kansas State Big 12	3–1	3.1	−0.1
26▲1	27	UCF Big 12	3–1	3.1	−0.1
27▼7	20	Virginia ACC	3–1	3.1	−0.1
28▲12	40	Vanderbilt SEC	3–1	3.1	−0.1
29	29	Baylor Big 12	3–1	3.0	0.0
30▲8	38	Kentucky SEC	3–1	3.0	0.0
31▲15	46	North Carolina ACC	2–1	2.2	−0.2
32▲5	37	Michigan Big Ten	3–1	3.0	0.0
33▲3	36	Washington Big Ten	3–1	2.9	+0.1
34▼18	16	Texas SEC	4–0	2.9	+1.1
35▼5	30	Minnesota Big Ten	3–1	2.8	+0.2
36▼2	34	Wisconsin Big Ten	3–1	2.8	+0.2
37▼5	32	Arizona Big 12	3–1	2.7	+0.3
38▲6	44	Northwestern Big Ten	2–1	2.0	0.0
39▼11	28	Oklahoma State Big 12	3–1	2.7	+0.3
40▲1	41	Ole Miss SEC	3–1	2.6	+0.4
41▲13	54	Florida State ACC	2–2	2.6	−0.6
42▼9	33	SMU ACC	3–1	2.5	+0.5
43▲10	53	Illinois Big Ten	2–2	2.4	−0.4
44▲12	56	Oklahoma SEC	2–2	2.4	−0.4
45▼10	35	West Virginia Big 12	3–1	2.4	+0.6
46▲5	51	Louisville ACC	2–2	2.3	−0.3
47▼8	39	Auburn SEC	3–1	2.3	+0.7
48▼3	45	Arizona State Big 12	2–1	1.7	+0.3
49▲17	66	Georgia Tech ACC	1–3	2.3	−1.3
50▲7	57	California ACC	2–2	2.2	−0.2
51▼4	47	TCU Big 12	2–2	2.2	−0.2
52▼4	48	Iowa State Big 12	2–2	2.2	−0.2
53▲2	55	Maryland Big Ten	2–2	2.1	−0.1
54▼12	42	Wake Forest ACC	3–1	2.1	+0.9
55▼6	49	South Carolina SEC	2–2	2.0	0.0
56▼13	43	Clemson ACC	3–1	2.0	+1.0
57▼5	52	Texas A&M SEC	2–2	2.0	0.0
58▲2	60	Boston College ACC	2–2	2.0	0.0
59▲8	67	Purdue Big Ten	1–3	1.9	−0.9
60▲1	61	Arkansas SEC	2–2	1.8	+0.2
61▲3	64	Kansas Big 12	1–2	1.3	−0.3
62▼12	50	NC State ACC	2–2	1.7	+0.3
63▼1	62	Stanford ACC	2–2	1.7	+0.3
64▼1	63	Syracuse ACC	1–2	1.1	−0.1
65▼6	59	Colorado Big 12	2–2	1.4	+0.6
66▼1	65	Rutgers Big Ten	1–3	1.4	−0.4
67▼9	58	Michigan State Big Ten	2–2	1.1	+0.9

Group of 5

American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12, Sun Belt. Every team by its overall record adjusted for luck.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Record	Coin-flip wins	Luck
1▲1	2	Massachusetts MAC	4–0	3.9	+0.1
2▲5	7	Toledo MAC	3–1	3.9	−0.9
3▼2	1	James Madison Sun Belt	4–0	3.7	+0.3
4▼1	3	North Dakota State Mountain West	4–0	3.6	+0.4
5▲5	10	Liberty Conference USA	3–1	3.3	−0.3
6▼1	5	New Mexico Mountain West	3–1	3.1	−0.1
7▲2	9	Boise State Pac-12	3–1	3.0	0.0
8▼2	6	Georgia State Sun Belt	3–1	3.0	0.0
9▲4	13	Tulsa American	3–1	2.9	+0.1
10▲16	26	Florida International Conference USA	2–2	2.8	−0.8
11▼7	4	South Florida American	4–0	2.7	+1.3
12▲8	20	Jacksonville State Conference USA	3–2	3.3	−0.3
13▲6	19	Air Force Mountain West	2–1	2.0	0.0
14▼2	12	Fresno State Pac-12	3–1	2.6	+0.4
15	15	UTSA American	3–1	2.6	+0.4
16▲18	34	East Carolina American	2–2	2.6	−0.6
17▼3	14	Memphis American	3–1	2.6	+0.4
18▼7	11	Louisiana Sun Belt	3–1	2.6	+0.4
19▼3	16	Florida Atlantic American	3–1	2.4	+0.6
20▲11	31	UNLV Mountain West	2–2	2.4	−0.4
21▲24	45	Navy American	1–2	1.8	−0.8
22	22	Oregon State Pac-12	2–2	2.3	−0.3
23▲4	27	Texas State Pac-12	2–2	2.3	−0.3
24	24	Middle Tennessee Conference USA	2–2	2.3	−0.3
25▼17	8	App State Sun Belt	3–1	2.2	+0.8
26▼3	23	Colorado State Pac-12	2–2	2.0	0.0
27▲16	43	Eastern Michigan MAC	2–3	2.5	−0.5
28▼7	21	North Texas American	2–2	2.0	0.0
29▲20	49	Temple American	1–3	2.0	−1.0
30▲3	33	Delaware Conference USA	2–2	2.0	0.0
31▼13	18	Army American	2–1	1.4	+0.6
32▲9	41	Central Michigan MAC	2–2	1.9	+0.1
33▼1	32	Ohio MAC	2–2	1.9	+0.1
34▲20	54	Southern Miss Sun Belt	1–3	1.9	−0.9
35▲7	42	Kent State MAC	2–2	1.9	+0.1
36▲24	60	Rice American	1–3	1.9	−0.9
37▲21	58	Missouri State Conference USA	1–3	1.9	−0.9
38▼9	29	South Alabama Sun Belt	2–2	1.8	+0.2
39▼4	35	Miami (OH) MAC	2–2	1.8	+0.2
40▲7	47	Nevada Mountain West	1–3	1.7	−0.7
41▼4	37	San José State Mountain West	2–2	1.7	+0.3
42▼12	30	Troy Sun Belt	2–2	1.7	+0.3
43▲9	52	Washington State Pac-12	1–3	1.6	−0.6
44▼6	38	UAB American	2–2	1.6	+0.4
45▲1	46	Sam Houston Conference USA	1–3	1.6	−0.6
46▲5	51	Kennesaw State Conference USA	1–3	1.6	−0.6
47▲10	57	Hawai'i Mountain West	1–3	1.6	−0.6
48	48	Coastal Carolina Sun Belt	1–3	1.6	−0.6
49▲10	59	Utah State Pac-12	1–3	1.5	−0.5
50▼22	28	Arkansas State Sun Belt	2–2	1.5	+0.5
51▼15	36	Wyoming Mountain West	2–2	1.4	+0.6
52▼35	17	Marshall Sun Belt	3–1	1.4	+1.6
53▼9	44	Louisiana Tech Sun Belt	1–2	1.0	0.0
54▼4	50	Georgia Southern Sun Belt	1–3	1.3	−0.3
55▼16	39	Tulane American	2–2	1.2	+0.8
56▼31	25	Western Michigan MAC	2–2	1.2	+0.8
57▼1	56	Old Dominion Sun Belt	1–3	1.2	−0.2
58▼18	40	Buffalo MAC	2–2	1.2	+0.8
59▲4	63	Ball State MAC	1–3	1.1	−0.1
60▲6	66	Charlotte American	0–4	1.1	−1.1
61▼8	53	New Mexico State Conference USA	1–3	1.0	0.0
62▼1	61	Akron MAC	1–3	1.0	0.0
63▼8	55	San Diego State Pac-12	1–3	1.0	0.0
64▼2	62	UTEP Mountain West	1–3	1.0	0.0
65▼1	64	Western Kentucky Conference USA	1–3	1.0	0.0
66▲1	67	UL Monroe Sun Belt	0–4	1.0	−1.0
67▼2	65	Sacramento State MAC	1–4	1.1	−0.1
68	68	Northern Illinois Mountain West	0–4	0.7	−0.7
69	69	Bowling Green MAC	0–4	0.0	0.0

Independents

Adjusted	Now	Team	Record	Coin-flip wins	Luck
1	1	Notre Dame Independent	4–0	4.0	0.0
2	2	UConn Independent	2–2	2.3	−0.3

Adjusted: rank adjusted for luck, ▲ places up because luck cost them, ▼ down because luck helped. Now: rank by record. Luck: wins minus coin-flip wins. Title: ✓ in the conference title game by the adjusted standings, ✓ only adjusted for luck, out in by record (or, once played, in the actual title game) only thanks to luck. Top two by the adjusted standings; no tiebreakers beyond the above.

Questions

What are luck-adjusted college football standings?

The 2026 standings with every game’s kicks, fumble bounces, drops, conversions and referee calls re-rolled and everything else as played: each result is replaced by how often the team wins that game replayed that way (its coin-flip win chance), added up. A team that keeps winning close games on missed kicks drops; one losing them climbs.

Which 2026 conference title games would change without luck?

Big Ten: Ohio State in place of Indiana; ACC: Duke and Virginia in place of Miami and Pittsburgh; Big 12: Oklahoma State in place of BYU; SEC: Alabama in place of Florida; American: Temple and UAB in place of South Florida and Florida Atlantic; Sun Belt: Old Dominion in place of Georgia State; MAC: Eastern Michigan in place of Kent State; Conference USA: Middle Tennessee in place of Liberty.

2025 standings · 2026 luck rankings · Predictions · Methodology