Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress

Oklahoma State Cowboys: luck and expected wins

Oklahoma State is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.0 wins. Luck cost 0.0: the 56th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Oklahoma State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Tulsa	L 10–24	17%	−17
Week 2	vs Oregon	W 39–31	96%	+4
Week 3	vs Murray State	W 59–0	100%	0
Week 4	@ West Virginia	W 41–24	91%	+9

Wk 1 −17 @ TLSA

Wk 2 +4 vs ORE

Wk 3 0 vs MUR

Wk 4 +9 @ WVU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Oklahoma State win chance
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs UCF	UCF by 2.1	45%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Houston	Houston by 11.3	24%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Colorado	Oklahoma State by 6.5	65%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Iowa State	Iowa State by 13.1	22%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Kansas State	Kansas State by 12.1	23%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Texas Tech	Texas Tech by 10.8	26%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Arizona State	Arizona State by 7.8	32%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Kansas	Oklahoma State by 3.1	57%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Oklahoma State’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.18	+12.2
Pre-snap flags	+0.05	0.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.05	+8.3

Luckiest wins

Wins Oklahoma State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 1	vs UT Martin	W 27–7	81%	+19
2026 Week 4	@ West Virginia	W 41–24	91%	+9
2026 Week 2	vs Oregon	W 39–31	96%	+4
2026 Week 3	vs Murray State	W 59–0	100%	0

Unluckiest losses

Losses Oklahoma State would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 12	vs Kansas State	L 6–14	93%	−93
2025 Week 4	vs Tulsa	L 12–19	56%	−56
2025 Week 8	vs Cincinnati	L 17–49	23%	−23
2025 Week 10	@ Kansas	L 21–38	17%	−17
2026 Week 1	@ Tulsa	L 10–24	17%	−17

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	1–11	3.1	−2.1	0–4	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs UT Martin	W 27–7	81%	+19
Week 2	@ Oregon	L 3–69	0%	0
Week 4	vs Tulsa	L 12–19	56%	−56
Week 5	vs Baylor	L 27–45	6%	−6
Week 6	@ Arizona	L 13–41	0%	0
Week 7	vs Houston	L 17–39	12%	−12
Week 8	vs Cincinnati	L 17–49	23%	−23
Week 9	@ Texas Tech	L 0–42	4%	−4
Week 10	@ Kansas	L 21–38	17%	−17
Week 12	vs Kansas State	L 6–14	93%	−93
Week 13	@ UCF	L 14–17	8%	−8
Week 14	vs Iowa State	L 13–20	8%	−8