luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 19, 2025

Tulsa at Oklahoma State, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Tulsa beat Oklahoma State 19–12, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Tulsa wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 32 points of win probability to Tulsa.

Before kickoff Oklahoma State was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 10, worth 21 points of win probability to Tulsa.

Final

Tulsa Golden Hurricane 19
Oklahoma State Cowboys 12

September 19, 2025 · Boone Pickens Stadium · Closing line: Oklahoma State −10

Luck index +56 Tulsa lucky · −56 Oklahoma State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Tulsa wins 4, Oklahoma State wins 6.

  1. 1 TLSA 27 OKST 7
  2. 2 TLSA 17 OKST 3
  3. 3 TLSA 24 OKST 17
  4. 4 TLSA 17 OKST 14
  5. 5 TLSA 17 OKST 19
  6. 6 TLSA 17 OKST 21
  7. 7 TLSA 12 OKST 19
  8. 8 TLSA 10 OKST 21
  9. 9 TLSA 3 OKST 23
  10. 10 TLSA 7 OKST 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Tulsa wins 44% of them, Oklahoma State 56%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulsa by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Tulsa by 17+9.3%
Tulsa by 9–1614.1%
Tulsa by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation1.6%
Oklahoma State by 1–822.5%
Oklahoma State by 9–1616.7%
Oklahoma State by 17+15.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.9 points to Tulsa: the final margin was Tulsa by 7, without the luck Tulsa by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Ward, 35 yds made · 81% expected
  • S. Morgan, 27 yds made · 89% expected
  • S. Morgan, 38 yds made · 75% expected
  • S. Morgan, 47 yds made · 59% expected
  • S. Morgan, 47 yds made · 59% expected
  • L. Ward, 49 yds made · 56% expected
  • S. Morgan, 50 yds missed · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Tulsa 4 for 34 yards, Oklahoma State 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:22 Illegal Substitution on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OKST +0.3 pts
Q2 5:45 Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards +1% OKST +0.6 pts
Q2 1:50 Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 15 yards +3% TLSA +0.9 pts
Q2 1:22 Delay of Game on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TLSA +0.1 pts
Q3 5:52 Roughing the Passer on Tulsa, 14 yards +2% OKST +0.9 pts
Q4 11:28 Delay of Game on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OKST +0.6 pts
Q4 8:43 Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards +2% TLSA +0.6 pts

When it happened

Oklahoma State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oklahoma State was ahead in it, below while Tulsa was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:01 Tulsa converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% TLSA TLSA: Field goal
2 Q3 13:29 Tulsa converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% TLSA TLSA: Field goal
3 Q3 6:48 Tulsa fumbled and Oklahoma State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% OKST TLSA: Punt
4 Q3 4:15 Oklahoma State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +5% TLSA OKST: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:24 Tulsa was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +7% OKST TLSA: Punt
6 Q4 2:19 Oklahoma State was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +10% TLSA OKST: End of game
7 Q4 0:31 S. Morgan missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 6 of 9 from 45+ before +11% OKST –
8 Q4 0:02 Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +21% TLSA –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Tulsa 60% · Oklahoma State 40%

Final margin
Tulsa by 7
Luck in points
4.9 for Tulsa
Luck-adjusted margin
Tulsa by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Tulsa 44% · Oklahoma State 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Tulsa · Oklahoma State

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