Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Wyoming at Colorado, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Colorado beat Wyoming 37–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Colorado wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Colorado was a 79% favorite.
Final
 Wyoming Cowboys | 20 |
|---|---|
 Colorado Buffaloes | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Colorado about even · −9 Wyoming
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wyoming wins 1, Colorado wins 9.
- 1 WYO 21 COLO 14
- 2 WYO 14 COLO 17
- 3 WYO 24 COLO 31
- 4 WYO 31 COLO 42
- 5 WYO 17 COLO 31
- 6 WYO 10 COLO 28
- 7 WYO 14 COLO 35
- 8 WYO 24 COLO 49
- 9 WYO 7 COLO 37
- 10 WYO 13 COLO 51
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wyoming wins 9% of them, Colorado 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colorado by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wyoming by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 2.0% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 5.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Colorado by 1–8 | 12.0% |
| Colorado by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Colorado by 17+ | 59.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Sandvik, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- E. Sandvik, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- A. Mata, 34 yds blocked · 84% expected
Penalties: Wyoming 6 for 65 yards, Colorado 4 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:46 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 15 yards | +5% WYO +3.1 pts |
| Q1 7:19 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 10 yards | 0% WYO +3.2 pts |
| Q1 6:34 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 8 yards | +4% WYO +2.5 pts |
| Q2 10:45 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% COLO +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:51 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% COLO +1.5 pts |
| Q2 3:33 | Pass Interference on Wyoming, 15 yards | +2% COLO +2.9 pts |
| Q2 0:59 | Roughing the Passer on Wyoming, 15 yards | 0% COLO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:04 | False Start on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WYO +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:02 | Face Mask on Wyoming, 15 yards | 0% COLO +1.6 pts |
| Q4 8:02 | Delay of Game on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% COLO +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Colorado’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:46 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% WYO | WYO: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:52 | Wyoming was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +2% COLO | WYO: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:30 | Colorado converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +3% COLO | COLO: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:34 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 8 yardsJudgment calls | +4% WYO | WYO: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 5:49 | Wyoming was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +2% COLO | WYO: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 14:12 | Colorado converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +4% COLO | COLO: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 7:37 | Colorado converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% COLO | COLO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 3:33 | Colorado was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedPass Interference on Wyoming, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% COLO | COLO: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wyoming 0% · Colorado 100%
- Final margin
- Colorado by 17
- Luck in points
- 6.4 for Wyoming
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colorado by 23.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Wyoming 9% · Colorado 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Wyoming · 
Colorado
More from Week 4 2025
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Arizona State at Baylor ASU 27–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- UTSA at Colorado State UTSA 17–16 · replay 40% for the winner
- Tulsa at Oklahoma State TLSA 19–12 · replay 44% for the winner
- UNLV at Miami (OH) UNLV 41–38 · replay 50% for the winner
- BYU at East Carolina BYU 34–13 · replay 66% for the winner
- Nevada at Western Kentucky WKU 31–16 · replay 73% for the winner
- SMU at TCU TCU 35–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- Boise State at Air Force BOIS 49–37 · replay 75% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Utah TTU 34–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- North Carolina at UCF UCF 34–9 · replay 91% for the winner
- Idaho at San José State SJSU 31–28 · replay 91% for the winner