luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

UTSA at Colorado State, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

UTSA beat Colorado State 17–16, but the replays lean toward Colorado State: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to UTSA.

Before kickoff UTSA was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:29 left): Colorado State’s two-point try failed, worth 20 points of win probability to UTSA.

Final

UTSA Roadrunners 17
Colorado State Rams 16

September 20, 2025 · Canvas Stadium · Closing line: UTSA −4.5

Luck index +60 UTSA very lucky · −60 Colorado State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UTSA wins 4, Colorado State wins 6.

  1. 1 UTSA 24 CSU 3
  2. 2 UTSA 28 CSU 14
  3. 3 UTSA 31 CSU 24
  4. 4 UTSA 14 CSU 10
  5. 5 UTSA 24 CSU 27
  6. 6 UTSA 14 CSU 20
  7. 7 UTSA 10 CSU 19
  8. 8 UTSA 3 CSU 16
  9. 9 UTSA 7 CSU 24
  10. 10 UTSA 0 CSU 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UTSA wins 40% of them, Colorado State 60%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UTSA by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UTSA by 17+8.0%
UTSA by 9–1611.1%
UTSA by 1–816.8%
Level after regulation4.4%
Colorado State by 1–821.9%
Colorado State by 9–1618.2%
Colorado State by 17+19.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to Colorado State: the final margin was UTSA by 1, without the luck UTSA by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • I. Hankins, 23 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Petro, 40 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UTSA 6 for 52 yards, Colorado State 11 for 115 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:51 Pass Interference on Colorado State, 15 yards +6% UTSA +3.3 pts
Q1 8:34 Holding on UTSA, 10 yards +2% CSU +1.3 pts
Q1 8:09 False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CSU +1.0 pts
Q1 5:48 Personal Foul on Colorado State, 15 yards +4% UTSA +2.1 pts
Q1 2:47 Face Mask on Colorado State, 15 yards +3% UTSA +1.3 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UTSA +0.6 pts
Q2 14:24 Unnecessary Roughness on Colorado State, 15 yards +3% UTSA +1.4 pts
Q2 8:29 Pass Interference on Colorado State, 15 yards 0% UTSA +1.6 pts
Q2 3:48 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UTSA +0.2 pts
Q2 2:37 Personal Foul on UTSA, 15 yards +2% CSU +0.8 pts
Q2 0:48 Unnecessary Roughness on UTSA, 15 yards 0% CSU +0.4 pts
Q3 3:27 Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards +5% UTSA +1.7 pts
Q4 14:19 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% UTSA +1.3 pts
Q4 9:08 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UTSA +0.5 pts
Q4 8:51 Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards +6% UTSA +1.3 pts
Q4 5:02 False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CSU +0.6 pts
Q4 0:29 Offside on UTSA, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% CSU +0.3 pts

When it happened

Colorado State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Colorado State was ahead in it, below while UTSA was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:51 Pass Interference on Colorado State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% UTSA UTSA: Turnover on downs
2 Q3 7:56 Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedColorado State was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% UTSA CSU: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 8:51 Holding on Colorado State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% UTSA UTSA: Touchdown
4 Q4 6:58 Colorado State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +10% CSU CSU: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:49 UTSA converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +15% UTSA UTSA: End of game
6 Q4 2:33 Colorado State converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% CSU CSU: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:36 Colorado State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +14% CSU CSU: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:29 Colorado State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedOffside on UTSA, 2 yardsPre-snap flags +20% UTSA CSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UTSA 70% · Colorado State 30%

Final margin
UTSA by 1
Luck in points
1.9 for Colorado State
Luck-adjusted margin
UTSA by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
UTSA 40% · Colorado State 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · UTSA · Colorado State

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