American · 2026 season, in progress

UTSA Roadrunners: luck and expected wins

UTSA is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.2 wins. Luck added 0.8: the 14th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often UTSA wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs UT Rio Grande Valley	W 45–16	99%	+1
Week 2	@ Texas State	W 31–26	24%	+76
Week 3	@ Texas	L 6–30	1%	−1
Week 4	vs Colorado State	W 59–45	96%	+4

Wk 1 +1 vs RGV

Wk 2 +76 @ TXST

Wk 3 −1 @ TEX

Wk 4 +4 vs CSU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	UTSA win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Rice	UTSA by 13.7	81%
Week 6 · Oct 8	vs South Florida	UTSA by 1.0	53%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Navy	UTSA by 11.0	75%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Tulane	UTSA by 1.3	53%
Week 10 · Nov 5	at Florida Atlantic	UTSA by 8.0	68%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs North Texas	North Texas by 0.7	48%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at UAB	UTSA by 11.3	75%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Tulsa	UTSA by 12.9	78%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in UTSA’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.15	−3.9
Pre-snap flags	+0.06	+8.3
Fumble bounces	−0.08	−5.4

Luckiest wins

Wins UTSA takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 2	@ Texas State	W 31–26	24%	+76
2025 Week 4	@ Colorado State	W 17–16	40%	+60
2025 Week 10	vs Tulane	W 48–26	81%	+19
2025 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl	vs Florida International	W 57–20	95%	+5
2026 Week 4	vs Colorado State	W 59–45	96%	+4

Unluckiest losses

Losses UTSA would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	vs Army	L 24–27	76%	−76
2025 Week 2	vs Texas State	L 36–43	53%	−53
2025 Week 6	@ Temple	L 21–27	25%	−25
2025 Week 1	@ Texas A&M	L 24–42	9%	−9
2025 Week 8	@ North Texas	L 17–55	6%	−6

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	6–6	6.9	−0.9	1–3	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Texas A&M	L 24–42	9%	−9
Week 2	vs Texas State	L 36–43	53%	−53
Week 3	vs Incarnate Word	W 48–20	98%	+2
Week 4	@ Colorado State	W 17–16	40%	+60
Week 6	@ Temple	L 21–27	25%	−25
Week 7	vs Rice	W 61–13	99%	+1
Week 8	@ North Texas	L 17–55	6%	−6
Week 10	vs Tulane	W 48–26	81%	+19
Week 11	@ South Florida	L 23–55	3%	−3
Week 12	@ Charlotte	W 28–7	98%	+2
Week 13	vs East Carolina	W 58–24	99%	+1
Week 14	vs Army	L 24–27	76%	−76
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl	vs Florida International	W 57–20	95%	+5