Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 61 of the 68 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Incarnate Word at UTSA, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
UTSA beat Incarnate Word 48–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UTSA wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff UTSA was a 91% favorite.
Final
 Incarnate Word Cardinals | 20 |
|---|---|
 UTSA Roadrunners | 48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 UTSA about even · −2 Incarnate Word
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Incarnate Word wins 0, UTSA wins 10.
- 1 UIW 30 UTSA 35
- 2 UIW 13 UTSA 24
- 3 UIW 14 UTSA 31
- 4 UIW 21 UTSA 42
- 5 UIW 20 UTSA 45
- 6 UIW 27 UTSA 56
- 7 UIW 16 UTSA 49
- 8 UIW 14 UTSA 52
- 9 UIW 21 UTSA 65
- 10 UIW 9 UTSA 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Incarnate Word wins 2% of them, UTSA 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UTSA by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Incarnate Word by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Incarnate Word by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Incarnate Word by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| UTSA by 1–8 | 4.9% |
| UTSA by 9–16 | 8.2% |
| UTSA by 17+ | 84.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Petro, 26 yds made · 90% expected
- M. Petro, 31 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Incarnate Word 8 for 78 yards, UTSA 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:11 | False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UIW +0.4 pts |
| Q1 7:49 | Targeting on Incarnate Word, 15 yards | 0% UTSA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 4:06 | Illegal Formation on Incarnate Word, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% UTSA +2.3 pts |
| Q1 3:02 | Face Mask on UTSA, 15 yards | +1% UIW +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:22 | Pass Interference on Incarnate Word, 15 yards | 0% UTSA +1.1 pts |
| Q2 8:49 | Illegal Block on Incarnate Word, 5 yards | 0% UTSA +0.3 pts |
| Q2 6:44 | False Start on Incarnate Word, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTSA +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:31 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Incarnate Word, 3 yards | 0% UTSA +0.1 pts |
| Q3 8:53 | Unnecessary Roughness on UTSA, 10 yards | 0% UIW +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:00 | Face Mask on Incarnate Word, 15 yards | 0% UTSA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:11 | Unnecessary Roughness on UTSA, 15 yards | 0% UIW +1.0 pts |
| Q4 5:25 | Face Mask on Incarnate Word, 15 yards | 0% UTSA +0.4 pts |
When it happened
UTSA’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:06 | UTSA converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +1% UTSA | UTSA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:46 | UTSA converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +2% UTSA | UTSA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 10:12 | Incarnate Word fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% UIW | UIW: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:00 | UTSA was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +1% UIW | UTSA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 4:06 | Illegal Formation on Incarnate Word, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +1% UTSA | UTSA: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 3:02 | Face Mask on UTSA, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% UIW | UIW: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 15:00 | UTSA was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% UIW | UTSA: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 10:00 | UTSA converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +1% UIW | UTSA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Incarnate Word 0% · UTSA 100%
- Final margin
- UTSA by 28
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for UTSA
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UTSA by 23.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Incarnate Word 2% · UTSA 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 61 of the 68 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Incarnate Word · 
UTSA
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