Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Houston Christian at Nebraska, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Nebraska beat Houston Christian 59–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Nebraska wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Nebraska was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Houston Christian Huskies | 7 |
|---|---|
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Nebraska about even · 0 Houston Christian
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Houston Christian wins 0, Nebraska wins 10.
- 1 HCU 10 NEB 31
- 2 HCU 14 NEB 45
- 3 HCU 14 NEB 49
- 4 HCU 10 NEB 48
- 5 HCU 7 NEB 49
- 6 HCU 7 NEB 52
- 7 HCU 7 NEB 55
- 8 HCU 3 NEB 52
- 9 HCU 0 NEB 55
- 10 HCU 3 NEB 65
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Houston Christian wins 0% of them, Nebraska 100%. The line is what actually happened: Nebraska by 52.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Houston Christian by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Houston Christian by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Houston Christian by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Nebraska by 17+ | 97.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Houston Christian 9 for 70 yards, Nebraska 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:07 | Holding on Houston Christian, 10 yards | 0% NEB +0.6 pts |
| Q1 9:01 | Illegal Substitution on Houston Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HCU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 6:14 | False Start on Houston Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEB +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:04 | Face Mask on Houston Christian, 15 yards | 0% NEB +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:05 | False Start on Houston Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEB +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:41 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yards | 0% HCU +2.3 pts |
| Q2 1:34 | False Start on Houston Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEB +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:55 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% HCU +1.9 pts |
| Q3 9:19 | Personal Foul on Nebraska, 15 yards | 0% HCU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:34 | Pass Interference on Houston Christian, 15 yards | 0% NEB +1.3 pts |
| Q3 7:34 | Offside on Houston Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEB +0.8 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Houston Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEB 0.0 pts |
| Q4 3:50 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HCU +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Nebraska’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:55 | Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +0% HCU | NEB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:12 | K. Cunanan made a 24-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him | +0% HCU | NEB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 11:07 | Houston Christian was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedHolding on Houston Christian, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% NEB | HCU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 9:01 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedIllegal Substitution on Houston Christian, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% HCU | NEB: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 6:14 | Houston Christian was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedFalse Start on Houston Christian, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% NEB | HCU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 3:05 | Houston Christian was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedFalse Start on Houston Christian, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% NEB | HCU: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 0:00 | Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +0% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 15:00 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +0% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Houston Christian 0% · Nebraska 100%
- Final margin
- Nebraska by 52
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for Nebraska
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nebraska by 46.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Houston Christian 0% · Nebraska 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Houston Christian · 
Nebraska
More from Week 3 2025
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- USC at Purdue USC 33–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- New Mexico at UCLA UNM 35–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Youngstown State at Michigan State MSU 41–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Incarnate Word at UTSA UTSA 48–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Rutgers RUTG 60–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oregon at Northwestern ORE 34–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Iowa IOWA 47–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Illinois ILL 38–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Towson at Maryland MD 44–17 · replay 100% for the winner
- Villanova at Penn State PSU 52–6 · replay 100% for the winner