Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress
Nebraska Cornhuskers: luck and expected wins
Nebraska is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 21st-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Nebraska wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Ohio | W 49–21 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 2 | vs Bowling Green | W 56–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs North Dakota | W 34–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ Michigan State | W 31–13 | 48% | +52 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Nebraska win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Maryland |  Nebraska by 22.0 | 92% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Indiana |  Indiana by 6.9 | 33% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at Oregon |  Oregon by 6.4 | 35% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Washington | Nebraska by 11.7 | 76% |
| Week 10 · Nov 6 | at Illinois | Nebraska by 2.7 | 57% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Rutgers | Nebraska by 15.2 | 82% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Ohio State |  Ohio State by 8.6 | 31% |
| Week 13 · Nov 27 | at Iowa |  Iowa by 4.8 | 39% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Nebraska’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.05 | +4.8 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.05 | −3.9 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Nebraska takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Cincinnati | W 20–17 | 19% | +81 |
| 2026 Week 4 | @ Michigan State | W 31–13 | 48% | +52 |
| 2025 Week 9 | vs Northwestern | W 28–21 | 71% | +29 |
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Michigan State | W 38–27 | 79% | +21 |
| 2025 Week 11 | @ UCLA | W 28–21 | 83% | +17 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Nebraska would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 4 | vs Michigan | L 27–30 | 61% | −61 |
| 2025 Week 10 | vs USC | L 17–21 | 29% | −29 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Iowa | L 16–40 | 24% | −24 |
| 2025 Week 8 | @ Minnesota | L 6–24 | 9% | −9 |
| 2025 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl | vs Utah | L 22–44 | 6% | −6 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7–5 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 4–2 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Cincinnati | W 20–17 | 19% | +81 |
| Week 2 | vs Akron | W 68–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Houston Christian | W 59–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Michigan | L 27–30 | 61% | −61 |
| Week 6 | vs Michigan State | W 38–27 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 7 | @ Maryland | W 34–31 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 8 | @ Minnesota | L 6–24 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 9 | vs Northwestern | W 28–21 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 10 | vs USC | L 17–21 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 11 | @ UCLA | W 28–21 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 13 | @ Penn State | L 10–37 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 14 | vs Iowa | L 16–40 | 24% | −24 |
| SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl | vs Utah | L 22–44 | 6% | −6 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big Ten teams by luck
- Big Ten:
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, 
Maryland, 
Michigan, 
Michigan State, 
Minnesota, 
Northwestern, Ohio State, Oregon, 
Penn State, 
Purdue, 
Rutgers, 
UCLA, 
USC, 
Washington, 
Wisconsin
How many wins does Nebraska have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.4 wins.
Was Nebraska lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Lucky so far: +0.6 wins of luck, the 21st-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Nebraska’s luckiest season?
2026: 4–0 from play worth 3.4 wins, +0.6 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 7–5 from play worth 6.7 (+0.3).