Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Nebraska at Maryland, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Nebraska beat Maryland 34–31, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Nebraska wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Maryland: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Nebraska it would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff Nebraska was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:40 left): Return touchdown by Maryland, worth 31 points of win probability to Maryland.
Final
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 34 |
|---|---|
 Maryland Terrapins | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Nebraska about even · −4 Maryland
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nebraska wins 10, Maryland wins 0.
- 1 NEB 73 MD 24
- 2 NEB 62 MD 21
- 3 NEB 66 MD 31
- 4 NEB 49 MD 17
- 5 NEB 42 MD 14
- 6 NEB 45 MD 21
- 7 NEB 51 MD 31
- 8 NEB 45 MD 28
- 9 NEB 42 MD 30
- 10 NEB 44 MD 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Maryland
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Nebraska it would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for Maryland: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska offenseEPA per play gained | +0.40 | +0.05 | better by 0.35 |
| Nebraska defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.03 | worse by 0.07 |
| Maryland offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.03 | better by 0.08 |
| Maryland defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.40 | +0.04 | worse by 0.35 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nebraska wins 96% of them, Maryland 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Nebraska by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nebraska by 17+ | 74.3% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 12.2% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 8.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 2.5% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Maryland by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Cunanan, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- S. O'Haire, 37 yds made · 79% expected
- K. Cunanan, 27 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Nebraska 6 for 49 yards, Maryland 7 for 114 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:48 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 15 yards | +1% NEB +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:58 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 10 yards | +1% NEB +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:05 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +5% MD +3.6 pts |
| Q1 0:15 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.3 pts |
| Q2 4:17 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Maryland, 50 yards | +1% NEB +1.1 pts |
| Q2 3:24 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Maryland, 6 yards | 0% NEB 0.0 pts |
| Q2 3:24 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Maryland, 14 yards | +3% MD +2.5 pts |
| Q3 8:58 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MD +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:13 | Delay of Game on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NEB +0.5 pts |
| Q4 13:25 | Holding on Nebraska, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +8% MD +2.0 pts |
| Q4 10:47 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards | +6% MD +1.5 pts |
| Q4 8:03 | Delay of Game on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:37 | Intentional Grounding on Maryland, 14 yards | 0% NEB +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Maryland’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:05 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% MD | MD: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 13:39 | Maryland converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% MD | MD: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 7:45 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +6% NEB | NEB: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 6:40 | Return touchdown by MarylandSpecial teams | +31% MD | MD: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 4:44 | Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +7% MD | NEB: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 13:25 | Holding on Nebraska, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% MD | MD: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 11:45 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +5% NEB | NEB: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 10:47 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% MD | MD: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nebraska 82% · Maryland 18%
- Final margin
- Nebraska by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for Maryland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nebraska by 4.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Nebraska 96% · Maryland 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Nebraska · 
Maryland
More from Week 7 2025
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Indiana at Oregon IU 30–20 · replay 55% for the winner
- Ohio State at Illinois OSU 34–16 · replay 61% for the winner
- Rutgers at Washington WASH 38–19 · replay 83% for the winner
- Michigan at USC USC 31–13 · replay 85% for the winner
- UCLA at Michigan State UCLA 38–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Iowa at Wisconsin IOWA 37–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner