luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025

Ohio State at Illinois, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

Ohio State beat Illinois 34–16, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Ohio State was an 83% favorite.

Final

Ohio State Buckeyes 34
Illinois Fighting Illini 16

October 11, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · Closing line: Ohio State −14.5

Luck index +39 Ohio State lucky · −39 Illinois

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ohio State wins 6, Illinois wins 4.

  1. 1 OSU 35 ILL 10
  2. 2 OSU 33 ILL 14
  3. 3 OSU 31 ILL 17
  4. 4 OSU 24 ILL 14
  5. 5 OSU 27 ILL 21
  6. 6 OSU 10 ILL 7
  7. 7 OSU 17 ILL 20
  8. 8 OSU 10 ILL 17
  9. 9 OSU 14 ILL 27
  10. 10 OSU 3 ILL 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ohio State wins 61% of them, Illinois 39%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ohio State by 17+20.7%
Ohio State by 9–1618.5%
Ohio State by 1–821.6%
Level after regulation6.3%
Illinois by 1–816.0%
Illinois by 9–169.8%
Illinois by 17+7.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.7 points to Ohio State: the final margin was Ohio State by 18, without the luck Ohio State by 8.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Fielding, 26 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Fielding, 31 yds made · 87% expected
  • D. Olano, 24 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ohio State 6 for 40 yards, Illinois 5 for 19 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:50 Illegal Forward Pass on Ohio State, 5 yards 0% ILL +1.5 pts
Q2 14:18 Pass Interference on Ohio State, 10 yards +1% ILL +0.9 pts
Q2 3:48 False Start on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OSU +0.4 pts
Q2 1:12 False Start on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OSU +1.5 pts
Q2 0:36 Delay of Game on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ILL +0.2 pts
Q3 7:54 Offside on Illinois, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% OSU +1.1 pts
Q3 2:08 Offside on Ohio State, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% ILL 0.0 pts
Q3 0:39 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Illinois, 0 yards 0% OSU +0.7 pts
Q4 11:19 False Start on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OSU +0.6 pts
Q4 8:39 Delay of Game on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ILL +0.6 pts
Q4 4:28 Pass Interference on Ohio State, 15 yards 0% ILL +2.1 pts

When it happened

Illinois’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Illinois was ahead in it, below while Ohio State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:53 Ohio State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +3% OSU OSU: Field goal
2 Q1 8:43 Illinois converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +2% ILL ILL: Turnover
3 Q1 1:16 Ohio State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +2% OSU OSU: Punt
4 Q2 11:10 Illinois converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +1% ILL ILL: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 9:32 Illinois converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +1% OSU ILL: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 9:22 Illinois was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +1% OSU ILL: Turnover
7 Q3 13:23 Illinois converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +2% ILL ILL: Touchdown
8 Q3 10:56 Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +1% OSU ILL: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ohio State 90% · Illinois 10%

Final margin
Ohio State by 18
Luck in points
9.7 for Ohio State
Luck-adjusted margin
Ohio State by 8.3
Replay with same day's form
Ohio State 61% · Illinois 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Ohio State · Illinois

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