Iowa at Wisconsin, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

Iowa Hawkeyes	37
Wisconsin Badgers	0

October 11, 2025 · Camp Randall Stadium · Closing line: Iowa −5.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index 0 Iowa about even · 0 Wisconsin

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Iowa wins 10, Wisconsin wins 0.

1 IOWA 58 WIS 0
2 IOWA 57 WIS 7
3 IOWA 63 WIS 17
4 IOWA 42 WIS 0
5 IOWA 45 WIS 7
6 IOWA 49 WIS 14
7 IOWA 32 WIS 0
8 IOWA 51 WIS 23
9 IOWA 30 WIS 7
10 IOWA 23 WIS 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Iowa wins 100% of them, Wisconsin 0%. The line is what actually happened: Iowa by 37.

Actual: Iowa by 37 494235282114707142128354249 ← Iowa win by Wisconsin win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Iowa by 17+	95.2%
Iowa by 9–16	3.3%
Iowa by 1–8	1.3%
Level after regulation	0.1%
Wisconsin by 1–8	0.1%
Wisconsin by 9–16	0.0%
Wisconsin by 17+	0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Fumble bounces +2% IOWA

All luck +2% IOWA

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to Iowa: the final margin was Iowa by 37, without the luck Iowa by 30.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

D. Stevens, 32 yds made · 86% expected
D. Stevens, 25 yds made · 93% expected
D. Stevens, 49 yds made · 58% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Iowa 2 for 10 yards, Wisconsin 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 12:54	Helping the Runner on Wisconsin, 5 yards	+2% WIS +0.8 pts
Q1 7:58	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wisconsin, 0 yards	+1% IOWA +0.7 pts
Q2 8:44	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wisconsin, 15 yards	0% WIS 0.0 pts
Q2 0:03	Illegal Formation on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% WIS +0.8 pts
Q3 0:17	Delay of Game on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% WIS +0.5 pts

When it happened

Wisconsin’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Wisconsin 50% Iowa Q1Q2Q3Q4 13578

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Wisconsin was ahead in it, below while Iowa was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 13:30	Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected	+3% WIS	IOWA: Punt
2	Q1 12:54	Helping the Runner on Wisconsin, 5 yardsJudgment calls	+2% WIS	IOWA: Field goal
3	Q1 11:55	Wisconsin converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected	+2% WIS	WIS: Punt
4	Q1 7:58	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wisconsin, 0 yardsJudgment calls	+1% IOWA	IOWA: Field goal
5	Q1 6:41	Iowa converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected	+2% IOWA	IOWA: Field goal
6	Q1 0:13	Wisconsin was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected	+2% IOWA	WIS: Punt
7	Q2 14:10	Wisconsin fumbled and Iowa recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50	+2% IOWA	WIS: Turnover on downs
8	Q2 5:57	Wisconsin was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected	+2% IOWA	WIS: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Iowa · Wisconsin

More from Week 7 2025

Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
Indiana at Oregon IU 30–20 · replay 55% for the winner
Ohio State at Illinois OSU 34–16 · replay 61% for the winner
Rutgers at Washington WASH 38–19 · replay 83% for the winner
Michigan at USC USC 31–13 · replay 85% for the winner
UCLA at Michigan State UCLA 38–13 · replay 96% for the winner
Nebraska at Maryland NEB 34–31 · replay 96% for the winner
Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner

Every week 7 game, 2025