Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress
Iowa Hawkeyes: luck and expected wins
Iowa is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.9 wins. Luck added 1.1: the 4th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–0.
2026, game by game
How often Iowa wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Northern Illinois | W 40–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Iowa State | W 16–13 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 3 | vs Northern Iowa | W 55–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ Michigan | W 20–19 | 13% | +87 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Iowa win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Ohio State |  Ohio State by 7.0 | 33% |
| Week 6 · Oct 9 | at Washington |  Iowa by 7.0 | 67% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Minnesota | Iowa by 9.4 | 72% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Wisconsin | Iowa by 12.2 | 77% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Northwestern | Iowa by 2.3 | 55% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Purdue | Iowa by 24.3 | 93% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Illinois | Iowa by 4.4 | 60% |
| Week 13 · Nov 27 | vs Nebraska | Iowa by 4.8 | 61% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Iowa’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.05 | −0.2 |
| Kicks | −0.03 | −4.4 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Iowa takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 4 | @ Michigan | W 20–19 | 13% | +87 |
| 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl | vs Vanderbilt | W 34–27 | 47% | +53 |
| 2025 Week 13 | vs Michigan State | W 20–17 | 62% | +38 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Nebraska | W 40–16 | 76% | +24 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Iowa State | W 16–13 | 76% | +24 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Iowa would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 12 | @ USC | L 21–26 | 64% | −64 |
| 2025 Week 5 | vs Indiana | L 15–20 | 52% | −52 |
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Iowa State | L 13–16 | 48% | −48 |
| 2025 Week 11 | vs Oregon | L 16–18 | 19% | −19 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–4 | 8.8 | −0.8 | 2–4 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs UAlbany | W 34–7 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 2 | @ Iowa State | L 13–16 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 3 | vs Massachusetts | W 47–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 4 | @ Rutgers | W 38–28 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 5 | vs Indiana | L 15–20 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 7 | @ Wisconsin | W 37–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 8 | vs Penn State | W 25–24 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 9 | vs Minnesota | W 41–3 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 11 | vs Oregon | L 16–18 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 12 | @ USC | L 21–26 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 13 | vs Michigan State | W 20–17 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 14 | @ Nebraska | W 40–16 | 76% | +24 |
| ReliaQuest Bowl | vs Vanderbilt | W 34–27 | 47% | +53 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big Ten teams by luck
- Big Ten:
Illinois, 
Indiana, 
Maryland, 
Michigan, 
Michigan State, 
Minnesota, 
Nebraska, 
Northwestern, Ohio State, 
Oregon, 
Penn State, 
Purdue, 
Rutgers, 
UCLA, 
USC, 
Washington, 
Wisconsin
How many wins does Iowa have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.9 wins.
Was Iowa lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Lucky so far: +1.1 wins of luck, the 4th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Iowa’s luckiest season?
2026: 4–0 from play worth 2.9 wins, +1.1 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 8–4 from play worth 8.8 (−0.8).