luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Northern Iowa at Iowa, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Iowa beat Northern Iowa 55–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Iowa wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Iowa was a 99% favorite.

Final

Northern Iowa Panthers 0
Iowa Hawkeyes 55

September 19, 2026 · Kinnick Stadium · Closing line: Iowa −37.5

Luck index 0 Iowa about even · 0 Northern Iowa

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Northern Iowa wins 0, Iowa wins 10.

  1. 1 UNI 16 IOWA 54
  2. 2 UNI 0 IOWA 47
  3. 3 UNI 6 IOWA 58
  4. 4 UNI 0 IOWA 55
  5. 5 UNI 3 IOWA 62
  6. 6 UNI 3 IOWA 66
  7. 7 UNI 3 IOWA 69
  8. 8 UNI 0 IOWA 70
  9. 9 UNI 0 IOWA 73
  10. 10 UNI 0 IOWA 80

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Northern Iowa wins 0% of them, Iowa 100%. The line is what actually happened: Iowa by 55.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Northern Iowa by 17+0.0%
Northern Iowa by 9–160.0%
Northern Iowa by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Iowa by 1–80.4%
Iowa by 9–161.6%
Iowa by 17+97.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to Northern Iowa: the final margin was Iowa by 55, without the luck Iowa by 55.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Northern Iowa 4 for 35 yards, Iowa 7 for 83 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:53 Roughing the Passer on Iowa, 15 yards 0% UNI +1.2 pts
Q1 2:57 False Start on Northern Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IOWA +1.3 pts
Q1 0:07 Holding on Northern Iowa, 10 yards 0% IOWA +1.1 pts
Q2 14:25 Delay of Game on Northern Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IOWA +0.2 pts
Q2 13:48 Pass Interference on Northern Iowa, 15 yards 0% IOWA +1.7 pts
Q2 8:08 Personal Foul on Iowa, 13 yards 0% UNI +0.8 pts
Q3 5:56 Roughing the Passer on Iowa, 15 yards 0% UNI +2.5 pts
Q3 4:22 False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNI +0.5 pts
Q3 2:03 Personal Foul on Iowa, 15 yards 0% UNI +0.9 pts
Q3 1:35 Delay of Game on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNI +0.5 pts
Q4 5:59 Personal Foul on Iowa, 15 yards 0% UNI +1.6 pts

When it happened

Iowa’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Iowa was ahead in it, below while Northern Iowa was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:11 Iowa converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +0% IOWA IOWA: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:13 Northern Iowa converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +0% UNI UNI: Punt
3 Q1 9:32 Northern Iowa fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% UNI UNI: Punt
4 Q1 9:03 Northern Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% IOWA UNI: Punt
5 Q1 4:09 Northern Iowa converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +0% UNI UNI: Punt
6 Q1 3:53 Roughing the Passer on Iowa, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% UNI UNI: Punt
7 Q1 2:57 False Start on Northern Iowa, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% IOWA IOWA: Touchdown
8 Q1 0:07 Holding on Northern Iowa, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% IOWA IOWA: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Northern Iowa 0% · Iowa 100%

Final margin
Iowa by 55
Luck in points
0.9 for Northern Iowa
Luck-adjusted margin
Iowa by 55.9
Replay with same day's form
Northern Iowa 0% · Iowa 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

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