Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Virginia Tech at Maryland, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Virginia Tech beat Maryland 35–26, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Virginia Tech wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Virginia Tech was a 56% favorite.
Final
 Virginia Tech Hokies | 35 |
|---|---|
 Maryland Terrapins | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Virginia Tech lucky · −53 Maryland
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Virginia Tech wins 5, Maryland wins 5.
- 1 VT 31 MD 10
- 2 VT 35 MD 21
- 3 VT 31 MD 21
- 4 VT 20 MD 14
- 5 VT 31 MD 28
- 6 VT 35 MD 38
- 7 VT 17 MD 22
- 8 VT 14 MD 23
- 9 VT 24 MD 38
- 10 VT 7 MD 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Virginia Tech wins 47% of them, Maryland 53%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia Tech by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Virginia Tech by 17+ | 10.9% |
| Virginia Tech by 9–16 | 15.8% |
| Virginia Tech by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 27.1% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 12.8% |
| Maryland by 17+ | 10.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Virginia Tech 9 for 76 yards, Maryland 8 for 64 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:13 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards | +1% MD +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:09 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 8 yards | +1% VT +0.4 pts |
| Q1 1:02 | Encroachment on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MD +1.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MD +0.5 pts |
| Q2 11:41 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 6 yards | +2% VT +1.1 pts |
| Q2 11:15 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards | +2% MD +1.2 pts |
| Q2 7:05 | Holding on Maryland, 10 yards | +1% VT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:53 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 14 yards | +3% VT +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:21 | Offside on Maryland, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% VT +0.2 pts |
| Q3 7:05 | Holding on Maryland, 10 yards | +1% VT +1.5 pts |
| Q3 6:19 | Pass Interference on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +1% MD +2.5 pts |
| Q4 13:03 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT +1.3 pts |
| Q4 12:43 | Pass Interference on Virginia Tech, 6 yards | +2% MD +4.4 pts |
| Q4 11:52 | Delay of Game on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:49 | Pass Interference on Virginia Tech, 10 yards | 0% MD +1.4 pts |
| Q4 8:34 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% VT +2.1 pts |
| Q4 3:59 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards | 0% MD +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Maryland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:18 | Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% VT | VT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 11:41 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 6 yardsJudgment calls | +2% VT | VT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 11:15 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% MD | MD: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 10:00 | Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +2% VT | VT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 7:16 | Maryland converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% MD | MD: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 2:59 | Maryland converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% MD | MD: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 1:53 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +3% VT | VT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 8:01 | Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +2% VT | VT: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Virginia Tech 87% · Maryland 13%
- Final margin
- Virginia Tech by 9
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for Virginia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Virginia Tech by 5.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Virginia Tech 47% · Maryland 53% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Virginia Tech · 
Maryland
More from Week 3 2026
- USC at Rutgers USC 42–35 · replay 25% for the winner
- Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- SMU at Louisville LOU 41–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- North Carolina at Clemson CLEM 28–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- NC State at Vanderbilt VAN 35–31 · replay 77% for the winner
- Florida State at Alabama ALA 50–36 · replay 77% for the winner
- Purdue at UCLA UCLA 52–38 · replay 79% for the winner
- Miami at Wake Forest MIA 33–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Syracuse at Pittsburgh PITT 27–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Maine at Boston College BC 22–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- West Virginia vs Virginia WVU 38–27 · replay 93% for the winner
- Michigan State at Notre Dame ND 27–10 · replay 96% for the winner