luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Michigan State at Notre Dame, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Notre Dame beat Michigan State 27–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Notre Dame wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 97% favorite.

Final

Michigan State Spartans 10
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 27

September 19, 2026 · Notre Dame Stadium · Closing line: Notre Dame −28.5

Luck index +4 Notre Dame about even · −4 Michigan State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Michigan State wins 0, Notre Dame wins 10.

  1. 1 MSU 13 ND 16
  2. 2 MSU 10 ND 17
  3. 3 MSU 10 ND 21
  4. 4 MSU 7 ND 21
  5. 5 MSU 0 ND 17
  6. 6 MSU 14 ND 34
  7. 7 MSU 7 ND 31
  8. 8 MSU 3 ND 30
  9. 9 MSU 0 ND 31
  10. 10 MSU 0 ND 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Michigan State wins 4% of them, Notre Dame 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Notre Dame by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Michigan State by 17+0.2%
Michigan State by 9–160.5%
Michigan State by 1–82.1%
Level after regulation1.1%
Notre Dame by 1–88.0%
Notre Dame by 9–1614.0%
Notre Dame by 17+74.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to Michigan State: the final margin was Notre Dame by 17, without the luck Notre Dame by 22.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Porath, 25 yds made · 92% expected
  • L. Boyd, 32 yds made · 86% expected
  • S. Porath, 35 yds made · 81% expected
  • S. Porath, 39 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Michigan State 2 for 30 yards, Notre Dame 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:00 Pass Interference on Michigan State, 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% ND +4.0 pts
Q1 0:48 Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards 0% MSU +0.6 pts
Q2 5:39 Pass Interference on Michigan State, 15 yards 0% ND +2.0 pts
Q3 1:18 Delay of Game on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSU +0.7 pts

When it happened

Notre Dame’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Notre Dame was ahead in it, below while Michigan State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:37 Notre Dame converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +0% ND ND: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:09 Notre Dame converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +0% ND ND: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:00 Pass Interference on Michigan State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% ND ND: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 1:54 Notre Dame was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +0% MSU ND: Punt
5 Q3 13:23 Michigan State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +0% MSU MSU: Punt
6 Q3 11:15 Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +1% ND MSU: Punt
7 Q3 5:41 Notre Dame converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +1% ND ND: Field goal
8 Q3 3:31 Notre Dame converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +0% ND ND: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Michigan State 0% · Notre Dame 100%

Final margin
Notre Dame by 17
Luck in points
5.3 for Michigan State
Luck-adjusted margin
Notre Dame by 22.3
Replay with same day's form
Michigan State 4% · Notre Dame 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Michigan State · Notre Dame

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