UTEP at Michigan, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Final

UTEP Miners	17
Michigan Wolverines	52

September 19, 2026 · Michigan Stadium · Closing line: Michigan −34.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index 0 Michigan about even · 0 UTEP

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UTEP wins 0, Michigan wins 10.

1 UTEP 3 MICH 16
2 UTEP 3 MICH 23
3 UTEP 3 MICH 27
4 UTEP 0 MICH 28
5 UTEP 3 MICH 35
6 UTEP 3 MICH 38
7 UTEP 0 MICH 38
8 UTEP 7 MICH 49
9 UTEP 20 MICH 66
10 UTEP 0 MICH 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UTEP wins 0% of them, Michigan 100%. The line is what actually happened: Michigan by 35.

Actual: Michigan by 35 494235282114707142128354249 ← UTEP win by Michigan win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
UTEP by 17+	0.0%
UTEP by 9–16	0.0%
UTEP by 1–8	0.1%
Level after regulation	0.1%
Michigan by 1–8	0.9%
Michigan by 9–16	2.5%
Michigan by 17+	96.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

3rd & 4th downs +2% MICH

Fumble bounces +2% UTEP

All luck +0% MICH

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.5 points to Michigan: the final margin was Michigan by 35, without the luck Michigan by 25.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

T. Butkowski, 49 yds made · 56% expected
C. Arreola, 39 yds made · 70% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UTEP 4 for 25 yards, Michigan 3 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 11:16	Holding on Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play	0% UTEP +1.5 pts
Q1 7:18	Offside on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% UTEP +1.3 pts
Q2 5:53	Offside on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% MICH +0.6 pts
Q2 3:11	Holding on UTEP, 10 yards	+1% MICH +1.2 pts
Q3 0:58	False Start on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% MICH +0.6 pts
Q4 10:57	Penalty on Michigan, 14 yards	0% UTEP +2.0 pts
Q4 3:44	Delay of Game on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% MICH +0.4 pts

When it happened

Michigan’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Michigan 50% UTEP Q1Q2Q3Q4 12478

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Michigan was ahead in it, below while UTEP was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 5:35	Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected	+1% UTEP	MICH: Punt
2	Q2 13:14	Michigan converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected	+1% MICH	MICH: Touchdown
3	Q2 6:58	UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected	+1% MICH	UTEP: Punt
4	Q2 6:12	Michigan fumbled and UTEP recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50	+2% UTEP	MICH: Touchdown
5	Q2 5:53	Offside on UTEP, 5 yardsPre-snap flags	+1% MICH	MICH: Touchdown
6	Q2 5:05	Michigan converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected	+1% MICH	MICH: Touchdown
7	Q2 3:11	Holding on UTEP, 10 yardsJudgment calls	+1% MICH	MICH: Touchdown
8	Q2 0:05	Michigan converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected	+1% MICH	MICH: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · UTEP · Michigan

More from Week 3 2026

USC at Rutgers USC 42–35 · replay 25% for the winner
Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
Fresno State at San José State FRES 26–10 · replay 48% for the winner
Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
Purdue at UCLA UCLA 52–38 · replay 79% for the winner
North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
Nevada at Middle Tennessee MTSU 27–20 · replay 84% for the winner
Northern Illinois at Arizona ARIZ 42–17 · replay 86% for the winner
New Mexico at Oklahoma OU 14–6 · replay 96% for the winner
Wyoming at Central Michigan CMU 24–10 · replay 96% for the winner
Michigan State at Notre Dame ND 27–10 · replay 96% for the winner
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin WIS 54–10 · replay 98% for the winner

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