Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Wisconsin beat Eastern Michigan 54–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Wisconsin wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Wisconsin was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 10 |
|---|---|
 Wisconsin Badgers | 54 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Wisconsin about even · −2 Eastern Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eastern Michigan wins 0, Wisconsin wins 10.
- 1 EMU 13 WIS 17
- 2 EMU 17 WIS 27
- 3 EMU 7 WIS 21
- 4 EMU 10 WIS 27
- 5 EMU 3 WIS 24
- 6 EMU 7 WIS 31
- 7 EMU 10 WIS 38
- 8 EMU 7 WIS 38
- 9 EMU 7 WIS 42
- 10 EMU 0 WIS 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eastern Michigan wins 2% of them, Wisconsin 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wisconsin by 44.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eastern Michigan by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Eastern Michigan by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Eastern Michigan by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Wisconsin by 1–8 | 5.6% |
| Wisconsin by 9–16 | 11.7% |
| Wisconsin by 17+ | 80.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Lahm, 39 yds made · 76% expected
- G. Lahm, 41 yds made · 72% expected
- R. Kessinger, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- D. Dunmore, 47 yds blocked · 59% expected
Penalties: Eastern Michigan 4 for 38 yards, Wisconsin 6 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:00 | Holding on Wisconsin, 10 yards | +2% EMU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:02 | False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% EMU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:11 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards | +1% WIS +1.3 pts |
| Q2 4:30 | Face Mask on Wisconsin, 15 yards | +1% EMU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:06 | Roughing the Passer on Wisconsin, 15 yards | 0% EMU +2.1 pts |
| Q2 0:55 | Face Mask on Eastern Michigan, 13 yards | 0% WIS +1.5 pts |
| Q3 13:55 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +0.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offside on Wisconsin, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% EMU +5.8 pts |
| Q4 12:36 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards | 0% WIS +2.1 pts |
| Q4 1:37 | Offside on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EMU +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Wisconsin’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:34 | Eastern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +2% WIS | EMU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 5:00 | Holding on Wisconsin, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% EMU | EMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:12 | Wisconsin was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +2% EMU | WIS: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 3:31 | Wisconsin converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +1% WIS | WIS: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 13:02 | False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% EMU | EMU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 12:33 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% WIS | WIS: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 11:17 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +2% WIS | WIS: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 8:12 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +2% WIS | WIS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eastern Michigan 0% · Wisconsin 100%
- Final margin
- Wisconsin by 44
- Luck in points
- 0.3 for Eastern Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wisconsin by 44.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Eastern Michigan 2% · Wisconsin 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Eastern Michigan · 
Wisconsin
More from Week 3 2026
- USC at Rutgers USC 42–35 · replay 25% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- Purdue at UCLA UCLA 52–38 · replay 79% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner
- Wyoming at Central Michigan CMU 24–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Michigan State at Notre Dame ND 27–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Stonehill at Massachusetts MASS 36–14 · replay 97% for the winner