Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
USC at Rutgers, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
USC beat Rutgers 42–35, but the replays lean toward Rutgers: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form.
USC won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Rutgers it would win 93% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%. The numbers
Before kickoff USC was a 91% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:32 left): Return touchdown by USC, worth 13 points of win probability to USC.
Final
 USC Trojans | 42 |
|---|---|
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +75 USC very lucky · −75 Rutgers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. USC wins 2, Rutgers wins 8.
- 1 USC 28 RUTG 14
- 2 USC 24 RUTG 21
- 3 USC 33 RUTG 35
- 4 USC 33 RUTG 37
- 5 USC 28 RUTG 35
- 6 USC 21 RUTG 31
- 7 USC 7 RUTG 21
- 8 USC 13 RUTG 31
- 9 USC 7 RUTG 28
- 10 USC 24 RUTG 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
USC won on an off day
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Rutgers it would win 93% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
69 points apart for USC: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC offenseEPA per play gained | +0.48 | +0.17 | better by 0.31 |
| USC defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.56 | +0.10 | worse by 0.46 |
| Rutgers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.56 | +0.11 | better by 0.45 |
| Rutgers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.48 | +0.15 | worse by 0.33 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
USC wins 25% of them, Rutgers 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: USC by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| USC by 17+ | 3.7% |
| USC by 9–16 | 6.3% |
| USC by 1–8 | 13.7% |
| Level after regulation | 4.4% |
| Rutgers by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| Rutgers by 9–16 | 20.3% |
| Rutgers by 17+ | 30.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Chittenden, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- C. Chittenden, 32 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: USC 8 for 71 yards, Rutgers 5 for 39 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:50 | Holding on USC, 10 yards | +1% RUTG +1.1 pts |
| Q1 11:42 | False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RUTG +0.2 pts |
| Q1 10:39 | Pass Interference on Rutgers, 15 yards | +2% USC +2.8 pts |
| Q1 8:00 | Face Mask on USC, 15 yards | +1% RUTG +2.2 pts |
| Q1 5:21 | Delay of Game on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USC +1.7 pts |
| Q2 13:10 | Delay of Game on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% RUTG +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:30 | Pass Interference on USC, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% RUTG +2.3 pts |
| Q2 4:25 | Pass Interference on Rutgers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% USC +1.7 pts |
| Q3 10:27 | Offside on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RUTG +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:48 | Pass Interference on USC, 6 yards | +1% RUTG +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:21 | Illegal Substitution on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USC +1.1 pts |
| Q4 10:23 | Illegal Substitution on Rutgers, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% USC +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:56 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on USC, 15 yards | 0% RUTG +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Rutgers’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 11:59 | USC converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +2% USC | USC: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 2:31 | Rutgers converted 4th & 213rd & 4th downs · 16% expected | +2% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 10:32 | Return touchdown by USCSpecial teams | +13% USC | USC: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 0:15 | USC was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +2% RUTG | USC: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 0:07 | USC converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +2% USC | USC: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 15:00 | USC was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedUSC was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +4% RUTG | USC: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 11:39 | Rutgers was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +2% USC | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:24 | Rutgers converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +2% RUTG | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
USC 85% · Rutgers 15%
- Final margin
- USC by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for USC
- Luck-adjusted margin
- USC by 6.3
- Replay with same day's form
- USC 25% · Rutgers 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
USC · 
Rutgers
More from Week 3 2026
- Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
- Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- Purdue at UCLA UCLA 52–38 · replay 79% for the winner
- Michigan State at Notre Dame ND 27–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin WIS 54–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Akron at Minnesota MINN 41–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- North Dakota at Nebraska NEB 34–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Eastern Washington at Washington WASH 48–16 · replay 100% for the winner
- UTEP at Michigan MICH 52–17 · replay 100% for the winner
- Portland State at Oregon ORE 84–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kent State at Ohio State OSU 59–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Buffalo at Penn State PSU 55–13 · replay 100% for the winner