Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Kent State at Ohio State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Ohio State beat Kent State 59–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio State was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Kent State Golden Flashes | 3 |
|---|---|
 Ohio State Buckeyes | 59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Ohio State about even · 0 Kent State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kent State wins 0, Ohio State wins 10.
- 1 KENT 3 OSU 52
- 2 KENT 0 OSU 59
- 3 KENT 0 OSU 65
- 4 KENT 0 OSU 69
- 5 KENT 0 OSU 72
- 6 KENT 7 OSU 83
- 7 KENT 0 OSU 79
- 8 KENT 0 OSU 83
- 9 KENT 0 OSU 87
- 10 KENT 3 OSU 98
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kent State wins 0% of them, Ohio State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 56.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kent State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Kent State by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Kent State by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Ohio State by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Ohio State by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Ohio State by 17+ | 98.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hawkins, 31 yds made · 85% expected
- S. Leonard, 30 yds made · 86% expected
Penalties: Kent State 12 for 85 yards, Ohio State 3 for 19 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:07 | Illegal Formation on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:42 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on Kent State, 15 yards | 0% OSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:25 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:35 | Pass Interference on Ohio State, 4 yards | 0% KENT +0.1 pts |
| Q2 7:35 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:35 | Delay of Game on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 7:35 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:48 | Illegal Block on Ohio State, 10 yards | 0% KENT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Roughing the Passer on Kent State, 15 yards | 0% OSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offside on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENT +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:57 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:14 | Illegal Block on Kent State, 5 yards | 0% OSU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 7:17 | Holding on Kent State, 10 yards | 0% OSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:33 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Ohio State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:07 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedIllegal Formation on Kent State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% OSU | KENT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:42 | Kent State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedKent State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedFalse Start on Kent State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% OSU | KENT: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 3:06 | Kent State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +0% OSU | KENT: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 0:44 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +0% OSU | KENT: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 15:00 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on Kent State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% OSU | OSU: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 9:29 | Ohio State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +0% OSU | OSU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 8:31 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% OSU | OSU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 7:17 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 11% expectedHolding on Kent State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% OSU | KENT: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kent State 0% · Ohio State 100%
- Final margin
- Ohio State by 56
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Ohio State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio State by 51.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Kent State 0% · Ohio State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Kent State · 
Ohio State
More from Week 3 2026
- USC at Rutgers USC 42–35 · replay 25% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- Purdue at UCLA UCLA 52–38 · replay 79% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner
- Wyoming at Central Michigan CMU 24–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Michigan State at Notre Dame ND 27–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Stonehill at Massachusetts MASS 36–14 · replay 97% for the winner