luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Colorado at Northwestern, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Northwestern beat Colorado 41–7, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Northwestern was a 59% favorite.

Final

Colorado Buffaloes 7
Northwestern Wildcats 41

September 19, 2026 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · Closing line: Northwestern −3.5

Luck index +35 Northwestern lucky · −35 Colorado

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colorado wins 4, Northwestern wins 6.

  1. 1 COLO 34 NU 7
  2. 2 COLO 24 NU 7
  3. 3 COLO 35 NU 27
  4. 4 COLO 20 NU 17
  5. 5 COLO 21 NU 24
  6. 6 COLO 27 NU 33
  7. 7 COLO 28 NU 38
  8. 8 COLO 13 NU 28
  9. 9 COLO 10 NU 31
  10. 10 COLO 17 NU 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colorado wins 35% of them, Northwestern 65%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Northwestern by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colorado by 17+9.2%
Colorado by 9–169.5%
Colorado by 1–815.6%
Level after regulation3.3%
Northwestern by 1–820.6%
Northwestern by 9–1617.4%
Northwestern by 17+24.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.4 points to Northwestern: the final margin was Northwestern by 34, without the luck Northwestern by 25.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Kleather, 36 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Kleather, 21 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colorado 8 for 65 yards, Northwestern 8 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:35 False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% COLO +1.2 pts
Q1 1:49 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards +4% NU +2.0 pts
Q1 1:02 Offside on Colorado, 1 yard, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% NU +1.9 pts
Q2 11:52 Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards +1% COLO +0.6 pts
Q2 11:52 False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% COLO +1.0 pts
Q2 9:02 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards +2% NU +1.2 pts
Q2 8:55 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% NU +1.1 pts
Q2 7:51 Offside on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% COLO +1.4 pts
Q2 3:39 False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% COLO +0.5 pts
Q2 3:12 False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% COLO +0.8 pts
Q2 3:05 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Colorado, 15 yards +2% NU +1.6 pts
Q3 6:12 Personal Foul on Northwestern, 15 yards 0% COLO +1.6 pts
Q4 10:47 Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards 0% COLO +2.5 pts
Q4 10:39 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NU +2.6 pts
Q4 4:52 Offside on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NU +0.8 pts
Q4 4:38 Offside on Colorado, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% NU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Northwestern’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Northwestern was ahead in it, below while Colorado was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:32 Northwestern was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +3% COLO NU: Punt
2 Q1 4:58 Colorado fumbled and Northwestern recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NU COLO: Turnover
3 Q1 1:49 Holding on Colorado, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% NU NU: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:02 Offside on Colorado, 1 yard, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +4% NU NU: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:45 Colorado fumbled and Northwestern recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% NU COLO: Turnover
6 Q2 9:21 Colorado converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +3% COLO COLO: Turnover
7 Q2 5:18 Colorado was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +4% NU COLO: Punt
8 Q2 3:21 Northwestern converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +3% NU NU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colorado 0% · Northwestern 100%

Final margin
Northwestern by 34
Luck in points
8.4 for Northwestern
Luck-adjusted margin
Northwestern by 25.6
Replay with same day's form
Colorado 35% · Northwestern 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Colorado · Northwestern

More from Week 3 2026

Every week 3 game, 2026