Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress

Colorado Buffaloes: luck and expected wins

Colorado is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 47th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Colorado wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Georgia Tech	W 14–13	19%	+81
Week 2	vs Weber State	W 52–21	97%	+3
Week 3	@ Northwestern	L 7–41	35%	−35
Week 4	@ Baylor	L 13–23	19%	−19

Wk 1 +81 @ GT

Wk 2 +3 vs WEB

Wk 3 −35 @ NU

Wk 4 −19 @ BAY

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Colorado win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Texas Tech	Texas Tech by 14.2	19%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Utah	Utah by 22.9	8%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State by 6.5	35%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Kansas State	Kansas State by 9.2	29%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Arizona State	Arizona State by 11.2	25%
Week 11 · Nov 13	vs Houston	Houston by 8.3	31%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Cincinnati	Cincinnati by 11.9	24%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs UCF	UCF by 5.5	37%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Colorado’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.11	+1.0
Fumble bounces	+0.03	+1.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.07	−9.2
Kicks	−0.14	+1.0

Luckiest wins

Wins Colorado takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 1	@ Georgia Tech	W 14–13	19%	+81
2025 Week 7	vs Iowa State	W 24–17	44%	+56
2025 Week 2	vs Delaware	W 31–7	88%	+12
2025 Week 4	vs Wyoming	W 37–20	91%	+9
2026 Week 2	vs Weber State	W 52–21	97%	+3

Unluckiest losses

Losses Colorado would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 6	@ TCU	L 21–35	59%	−59
2025 Week 5	vs BYU	L 21–24	43%	−43
2026 Week 3	@ Northwestern	L 7–41	35%	−35
2025 Week 14	@ Kansas State	L 14–24	31%	−31
2025 Week 3	@ Houston	L 20–36	26%	−26

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	3–9	4.1	−1.1	1–3	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Georgia Tech	L 20–27	12%	−12
Week 2	vs Delaware	W 31–7	88%	+12
Week 3	@ Houston	L 20–36	26%	−26
Week 4	vs Wyoming	W 37–20	91%	+9
Week 5	vs BYU	L 21–24	43%	−43
Week 6	@ TCU	L 21–35	59%	−59
Week 7	vs Iowa State	W 24–17	44%	+56
Week 9	@ Utah	L 7–53	0%	0
Week 10	vs Arizona	L 17–52	2%	−2
Week 11	@ West Virginia	L 22–29	10%	−10
Week 13	vs Arizona State	L 17–42	2%	−2
Week 14	@ Kansas State	L 14–24	31%	−31