2026 college football season · after Week 4

The luckiest college football teams of 2026 so far

South Florida is the luckiest team of 2026 so far: 4 wins from play that, replayed with the same day’s form, was worth 2.4. Georgia Tech is the unluckiest: 1 win from play worth 2.9.

Luck here is wins minus replay wins. For each game: how often this team wins it when it’s replayed with the way both teams actually played (our postgame win expectancy), added up over the season, which college analysts call second-order wins. Regular season, FBS teams. How the replay works

Luck rankings By conference Week by week

#	Team	Conference	Record	Replay wins	Luck in wins	One-score	Coin-flip wins
1	South Florida	American	4–0	2.4	+1.6	2–0	2.7
2	Marshall	Sun Belt	3–1	1.4	+1.6	3–0	1.4
3	Florida Atlantic	American	3–1	1.9	+1.1	2–0	2.4
4	Iowa	Big Ten	4–0	2.9	+1.1	2–0	3.3
5	North Dakota State	Mountain West	4–0	3.0	+1.0	1–0	3.6
6	Texas Tech	Big 12	4–0	3.0	+1.0	1–0	3.5
7	Fresno State	Pac-12	3–1	2.1	+0.9	0–0	2.6
8	Texas	SEC	4–0	3.1	+0.9	2–0	2.9
9	Clemson	ACC	3–1	2.1	+0.9	1–0	2.0
10	Tulsa	American	3–1	2.1	+0.9	1–0	2.9
11	Wake Forest	ACC	3–1	2.1	+0.9	2–0	2.1
12	South Alabama	Sun Belt	2–2	1.2	+0.8	1–1	1.8
13	Cincinnati	Big 12	4–0	3.2	+0.8	2–0	3.4
14	UTSA	American	3–1	2.2	+0.8	1–0	2.6
15	Duke	ACC	4–0	3.2	+0.8	1–0	3.3
16	James Madison	Sun Belt	4–0	3.2	+0.8	1–0	3.7
17	Virginia Tech	ACC	4–0	3.2	+0.8	1–0	3.8
18	Tulane	American	2–2	1.3	+0.7	2–0	1.2
19	Ole Miss	SEC	3–1	2.3	+0.7	2–0	2.6
20	UCLA	Big Ten	4–0	3.3	+0.7	0–0	3.9
21	Nebraska	Big Ten	4–0	3.4	+0.6	0–0	4.0
22	Minnesota	Big Ten	3–1	2.4	+0.6	1–0	2.8
23	Pittsburgh	ACC	4–0	3.4	+0.6	1–0	3.8
24	West Virginia	Big 12	3–1	2.4	+0.6	1–0	2.4
25	UAB	American	2–2	1.4	+0.6	2–1	1.6
26	Oregon	Big Ten	3–1	2.5	+0.5	1–1	3.1
27	California	ACC	2–2	1.5	+0.5	1–0	2.2
28	Buffalo	MAC	2–2	1.5	+0.5	2–0	1.2
29	Tennessee	SEC	3–1	2.5	+0.5	0–1	3.4
30	Western Michigan	MAC	2–2	1.5	+0.5	1–1	1.2
31	Boise State	Pac-12	3–1	2.5	+0.5	0–1	3.0
32	Wyoming	Mountain West	2–2	1.5	+0.5	1–0	1.4
33	Stanford	ACC	2–2	1.6	+0.4	1–0	1.7
34	Boston College	ACC	2–2	1.6	+0.4	2–1	2.0
35	Arizona State	Big 12	2–1	1.6	+0.4	1–0	1.7
36	Georgia State	Sun Belt	3–1	2.6	+0.4	0–0	3.0
37	Massachusetts	MAC	4–0	3.7	+0.3	0–0	3.9
38	Florida	SEC	4–0	3.7	+0.3	1–0	3.9
39	Texas A&M	SEC	2–2	1.7	+0.3	0–0	2.0
40	USC	Big Ten	4–1	3.7	+0.3	1–0	4.0
41	App State	Sun Belt	3–1	2.7	+0.3	2–0	2.2
42	Mississippi State	SEC	4–0	3.7	+0.3	2–0	3.6
43	Louisiana	Sun Belt	3–1	2.7	+0.3	1–0	2.6
44	Hawai'i	Mountain West	1–3	0.7	+0.3	0–0	1.6
45	Liberty	Conference USA	3–1	2.7	+0.3	1–1	3.3
46	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	2–2	1.7	+0.3	1–0	1.5
47	Colorado	Big 12	2–2	1.7	+0.3	1–0	1.4
48	Alabama	SEC	4–0	3.7	+0.3	0–0	4.0
49	Northwestern	Big Ten	2–1	1.7	+0.3	0–1	2.0
50	Ohio	MAC	2–2	1.7	+0.3	1–1	1.9
51	Army	American	2–1	1.7	+0.3	1–1	1.4
52	Central Michigan	MAC	2–2	1.7	+0.3	1–0	1.9
53	Penn State	Big Ten	3–1	2.7	+0.3	0–1	3.2
54	Auburn	SEC	3–1	2.7	+0.3	2–1	2.3
55	Notre Dame	Independent	4–0	3.7	+0.3	0–0	4.0
56	Colorado State	Pac-12	2–2	1.8	+0.2	0–0	2.0
57	Arizona	Big 12	3–1	2.8	+0.2	0–0	2.7
58	NC State	ACC	2–2	1.8	+0.2	0–1	1.7
59	Vanderbilt	SEC	3–1	2.8	+0.2	1–1	3.1
60	Kentucky	SEC	3–1	2.8	+0.2	0–0	3.0
61	UNLV	Mountain West	2–2	1.8	+0.2	0–1	2.4
62	BYU	Big 12	3–0	2.8	+0.2	0–0	2.9
63	Baylor	Big 12	3–1	2.8	+0.2	0–1	3.0
64	Miami	ACC	4–0	3.8	+0.2	0–0	4.0
65	Indiana	Big Ten	4–0	3.8	+0.2	1–0	4.0
66	Missouri	SEC	3–1	2.8	+0.2	0–1	3.3
67	Troy	Sun Belt	2–2	1.8	+0.2	1–0	1.7
68	Kent State	MAC	2–2	1.9	+0.1	0–0	1.9
69	Washington	Big Ten	3–1	2.9	+0.1	1–1	2.9
70	Georgia	SEC	4–0	3.9	+0.1	0–0	4.0
71	Wisconsin	Big Ten	3–1	2.9	+0.1	1–0	2.8
72	Utah	Big 12	4–0	3.9	+0.1	0–0	4.0
73	San José State	Mountain West	2–2	2.0	0.0	1–0	1.7
74	UCF	Big 12	3–1	3.0	0.0	1–1	3.1
75	Delaware	Conference USA	2–2	2.0	0.0	1–0	2.0
76	New Mexico	Mountain West	3–1	3.0	0.0	0–1	3.1
77	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	1–3	1.0	0.0	0–0	1.0
78	UTEP	Mountain West	1–3	1.0	0.0	0–0	1.0
79	Michigan State	Big Ten	2–2	2.0	0.0	0–0	1.1
80	Virginia	ACC	3–1	3.0	0.0	0–0	3.1
81	Arkansas	SEC	2–2	2.0	0.0	0–0	1.8
82	Ball State	MAC	1–3	1.0	0.0	0–0	1.1
83	Oklahoma State	Big 12	3–1	3.0	0.0	1–0	2.7
84	North Carolina	ACC	2–1	2.0	0.0	1–1	2.2
85	Kansas State	Big 12	3–1	3.0	0.0	0–1	3.1
86	Florida State	ACC	2–2	2.1	−0.1	0–1	2.6
87	Houston	Big 12	3–1	3.1	−0.1	0–1	3.2
88	North Texas	American	2–2	2.2	−0.2	0–0	2.0
89	Louisiana Tech	Sun Belt	1–2	1.2	−0.2	0–0	1.0
90	East Carolina	American	2–2	2.2	−0.2	1–1	2.6
91	Michigan	Big Ten	3–1	3.2	−0.2	2–1	3.0
92	Memphis	American	3–1	3.2	−0.2	1–0	2.6
93	Iowa State	Big 12	2–2	2.3	−0.3	0–1	2.2
94	Air Force	Mountain West	2–1	2.3	−0.3	1–1	2.0
95	SMU	ACC	3–1	3.3	−0.3	1–0	2.5
96	South Carolina	SEC	2–2	2.3	−0.3	0–1	2.0
97	UConn	Independent	2–2	2.3	−0.3	0–1	2.3
98	Sacramento State	MAC	1–4	1.3	−0.3	0–0	1.1
99	LSU	SEC	3–1	3.3	−0.3	0–1	3.2
100	Eastern Michigan	MAC	2–3	2.3	−0.3	0–1	2.5
101	Toledo	MAC	3–1	3.4	−0.4	1–0	3.9
102	Akron	MAC	1–3	1.4	−0.4	0–0	1.0
103	Washington State	Pac-12	1–3	1.4	−0.4	0–0	1.6
104	Miami (OH)	MAC	2–2	2.4	−0.4	1–1	1.8
105	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	2–2	2.4	−0.4	1–1	2.3
106	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	3–2	3.4	−0.4	1–1	3.3
107	TCU	Big 12	2–2	2.4	−0.4	0–2	2.2
108	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	1–3	1.5	−0.5	0–1	1.9
109	Oklahoma	SEC	2–2	2.5	−0.5	1–1	2.4
110	Purdue	Big Ten	1–3	1.6	−0.6	0–1	1.9
111	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	1–3	1.6	−0.6	0–1	1.2
112	Bowling Green	MAC	0–4	0.6	−0.6	0–2	0.0
113	San Diego State	Pac-12	1–3	1.6	−0.6	0–0	1.0
114	Ohio State	Big Ten	3–1	3.7	−0.7	0–1	3.7
115	Maryland	Big Ten	2–2	2.7	−0.7	0–0	2.1
116	Texas State	Pac-12	2–2	2.7	−0.7	0–1	2.3
117	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	1–3	1.7	−0.7	0–1	1.3
118	Illinois	Big Ten	2–2	2.7	−0.7	0–1	2.4
119	Louisville	ACC	2–2	2.7	−0.7	0–2	2.3
120	New Mexico State	Conference USA	1–3	1.8	−0.8	0–0	1.0
121	Missouri State	Conference USA	1–3	1.8	−0.8	0–1	1.9
122	Navy	American	1–2	1.8	−0.8	0–2	1.8
123	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	1–3	1.8	−0.8	0–1	1.6
124	Oregon State	Pac-12	2–2	2.8	−0.8	0–0	2.3
125	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	1–3	1.9	−0.9	0–2	1.6
126	Florida International	Conference USA	2–2	2.9	−0.9	0–1	2.8
127	Syracuse	ACC	1–2	1.9	−0.9	0–1	1.1
128	Kansas	Big 12	1–2	2.0	−1.0	0–1	1.3
129	Rice	American	1–3	2.0	−1.0	0–1	1.9
130	Charlotte	American	0–4	1.1	−1.1	0–2	1.1
131	Northern Illinois	Mountain West	0–4	1.2	−1.2	0–1	0.7
132	Sam Houston	Conference USA	1–3	2.2	−1.2	0–2	1.6
133	Utah State	Pac-12	1–3	2.2	−1.2	0–1	1.5
134	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	0–4	1.2	−1.2	0–2	1.0
135	Nevada	Mountain West	1–3	2.2	−1.2	0–2	1.7
136	Temple	American	1–3	2.5	−1.5	0–2	2.0
137	Rutgers	Big Ten	1–3	2.6	−1.6	0–2	1.4
138	Georgia Tech	ACC	1–3	2.9	−1.9	0–2	2.3

Replay wins: the sum, over every game, of how often the team wins a replay with the same day’s form. Coin-flip wins: the same with only kicks, fumble bounces, conversions and calls re-rolled; in the NFL it is the number that best predicts the rest of a season (college validation). One-score: games decided by 8 points or fewer. Games against FCS opponents count.

Did luck add wins or take them away?

Each logo is a team. Across: the wins its play was worth (replay wins). Up: the wins it actually got. On the diagonal the two match; above it, luck added wins; below it, luck cost wins.

Luck added wins Luck cost wins 012345 012345 Wins their play was worth (replay wins) Actual wins

Luck by conference, 2026

Each conference’s teams, luckiest first, with their national rank. The standings adjusted for luck: 2026 standings.

Big Ten ACC Big 12 SEC American Sun Belt MAC Conference USA Mountain West Pac-12 Independent

Big Ten

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Iowa	4–0	2.9	+1.1	4
UCLA	4–0	3.3	+0.7	20
Nebraska	4–0	3.4	+0.6	21
Minnesota	3–1	2.4	+0.6	22
Oregon	3–1	2.5	+0.5	26
USC	4–1	3.7	+0.3	40
Northwestern	2–1	1.7	+0.3	49
Penn State	3–1	2.7	+0.3	53
Indiana	4–0	3.8	+0.2	65
Washington	3–1	2.9	+0.1	69
Wisconsin	3–1	2.9	+0.1	71
Michigan State	2–2	2.0	0.0	79
Michigan	3–1	3.2	−0.2	91
Purdue	1–3	1.6	−0.6	110
Ohio State	3–1	3.7	−0.7	114
Maryland	2–2	2.7	−0.7	115
Illinois	2–2	2.7	−0.7	118
Rutgers	1–3	2.6	−1.6	137

ACC

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Clemson	3–1	2.1	+0.9	9
Wake Forest	3–1	2.1	+0.9	11
Duke	4–0	3.2	+0.8	15
Virginia Tech	4–0	3.2	+0.8	17
Pittsburgh	4–0	3.4	+0.6	23
California	2–2	1.5	+0.5	27
Stanford	2–2	1.6	+0.4	33
Boston College	2–2	1.6	+0.4	34
NC State	2–2	1.8	+0.2	58
Miami	4–0	3.8	+0.2	64
Virginia	3–1	3.0	0.0	80
North Carolina	2–1	2.0	0.0	84
Florida State	2–2	2.1	−0.1	86
SMU	3–1	3.3	−0.3	95
Louisville	2–2	2.7	−0.7	119
Syracuse	1–2	1.9	−0.9	127
Georgia Tech	1–3	2.9	−1.9	138

Big 12

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Texas Tech	4–0	3.0	+1.0	6
Cincinnati	4–0	3.2	+0.8	13
West Virginia	3–1	2.4	+0.6	24
Arizona State	2–1	1.6	+0.4	35
Colorado	2–2	1.7	+0.3	47
Arizona	3–1	2.8	+0.2	57
BYU	3–0	2.8	+0.2	62
Baylor	3–1	2.8	+0.2	63
Utah	4–0	3.9	+0.1	72
UCF	3–1	3.0	0.0	74
Oklahoma State	3–1	3.0	0.0	83
Kansas State	3–1	3.0	0.0	85
Houston	3–1	3.1	−0.1	87
Iowa State	2–2	2.3	−0.3	93
TCU	2–2	2.4	−0.4	107
Kansas	1–2	2.0	−1.0	128

SEC

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Texas	4–0	3.1	+0.9	8
Ole Miss	3–1	2.3	+0.7	19
Tennessee	3–1	2.5	+0.5	29
Florida	4–0	3.7	+0.3	38
Texas A&M	2–2	1.7	+0.3	39
Mississippi State	4–0	3.7	+0.3	42
Alabama	4–0	3.7	+0.3	48
Auburn	3–1	2.7	+0.3	54
Vanderbilt	3–1	2.8	+0.2	59
Kentucky	3–1	2.8	+0.2	60
Missouri	3–1	2.8	+0.2	66
Georgia	4–0	3.9	+0.1	70
Arkansas	2–2	2.0	0.0	81
South Carolina	2–2	2.3	−0.3	96
LSU	3–1	3.3	−0.3	99
Oklahoma	2–2	2.5	−0.5	109

American

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
South Florida	4–0	2.4	+1.6	1
Florida Atlantic	3–1	1.9	+1.1	3
Tulsa	3–1	2.1	+0.9	10
UTSA	3–1	2.2	+0.8	14
Tulane	2–2	1.3	+0.7	18
UAB	2–2	1.4	+0.6	25
Army	2–1	1.7	+0.3	51
North Texas	2–2	2.2	−0.2	88
East Carolina	2–2	2.2	−0.2	90
Memphis	3–1	3.2	−0.2	92
Navy	1–2	1.8	−0.8	122
Rice	1–3	2.0	−1.0	129
Charlotte	0–4	1.1	−1.1	130
Temple	1–3	2.5	−1.5	136

Sun Belt

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Marshall	3–1	1.4	+1.6	2
South Alabama	2–2	1.2	+0.8	12
James Madison	4–0	3.2	+0.8	16
Georgia State	3–1	2.6	+0.4	36
App State	3–1	2.7	+0.3	41
Louisiana	3–1	2.7	+0.3	43
Arkansas State	2–2	1.7	+0.3	46
Troy	2–2	1.8	+0.2	67
Louisiana Tech	1–2	1.2	−0.2	89
Southern Miss	1–3	1.5	−0.5	108
Old Dominion	1–3	1.6	−0.6	111
Georgia Southern	1–3	1.7	−0.7	117
Coastal Carolina	1–3	1.9	−0.9	125
UL Monroe	0–4	1.2	−1.2	134

MAC

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Buffalo	2–2	1.5	+0.5	28
Western Michigan	2–2	1.5	+0.5	30
Massachusetts	4–0	3.7	+0.3	37
Ohio	2–2	1.7	+0.3	50
Central Michigan	2–2	1.7	+0.3	52
Kent State	2–2	1.9	+0.1	68
Ball State	1–3	1.0	0.0	82
Sacramento State	1–4	1.3	−0.3	98
Eastern Michigan	2–3	2.3	−0.3	100
Toledo	3–1	3.4	−0.4	101
Akron	1–3	1.4	−0.4	102
Miami (OH)	2–2	2.4	−0.4	104
Bowling Green	0–4	0.6	−0.6	112

Conference USA

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Liberty	3–1	2.7	+0.3	45
Delaware	2–2	2.0	0.0	75
Western Kentucky	1–3	1.0	0.0	77
Middle Tennessee	2–2	2.4	−0.4	105
Jacksonville State	3–2	3.4	−0.4	106
New Mexico State	1–3	1.8	−0.8	120
Missouri State	1–3	1.8	−0.8	121
Kennesaw State	1–3	1.8	−0.8	123
Florida International	2–2	2.9	−0.9	126
Sam Houston	1–3	2.2	−1.2	132

Mountain West

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
North Dakota State	4–0	3.0	+1.0	5
Wyoming	2–2	1.5	+0.5	32
Hawai'i	1–3	0.7	+0.3	44
UNLV	2–2	1.8	+0.2	61
San José State	2–2	2.0	0.0	73
New Mexico	3–1	3.0	0.0	76
UTEP	1–3	1.0	0.0	78
Air Force	2–1	2.3	−0.3	94
Northern Illinois	0–4	1.2	−1.2	131
Nevada	1–3	2.2	−1.2	135

Pac-12

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Fresno State	3–1	2.1	+0.9	7
Boise State	3–1	2.5	+0.5	31
Colorado State	2–2	1.8	+0.2	56
Washington State	1–3	1.4	−0.4	103
San Diego State	1–3	1.6	−0.6	113
Texas State	2–2	2.7	−0.7	116
Oregon State	2–2	2.8	−0.8	124
Utah State	1–3	2.2	−1.2	133

Independent

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Notre Dame	4–0	3.7	+0.3	55
UConn	2–2	2.3	−0.3	97

2026, week by week

Week	Dates	Winners behind in replays	Biggest heist
Week 4	Sep 24, 2026–Sep 26, 2026	4 of 71	Army 21–17 Temple · won 9% of replays
Week 3	Sep 17, 2026–Sep 19, 2026	7 of 75	Arizona State 24–17 Kansas · won 8% of replays
Week 2	Sep 10, 2026–Sep 12, 2026	12 of 86	Illinois State 28–24 Northern Illinois · won 17% of replays
Week 1	Aug 29, 2026–Sep 7, 2026	4 of 99	South Alabama 39–14 SE Louisiana · won 12% of replays

Game by game

The luck index of every game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). Teams sorted luckiest to unluckiest.

Team	1	2	3	4
USF		62
MRSH			78
FAU			69
IOWA				87
NDSU		81
TTU		73
FRES
TEX		68
CLEM
TLSA		73
WAKE				62
USA	88
CIN
UTSA		76
DUKE		75
JMU			60
VT
TULN
MISS
UCLA
NEB
MINN
PITT
WVU
UAB				68
ORE
CAL		81
BUF
TENN		67
WMU			64
BOIS
WYO
STAN
BC
ASU			92
GAST
MASS
FLA
TA&M
USC			75
APP		65
MSST
UL
HAW
LIB
ARST
COLO	81
ALA
NU
OHIO		73
ARMY		62		91
CMU
PSU
AUB
ND
CSU
ARIZ
NCSU
VAN
UK
UNLV
BYU
BAY
MIA
IU
MIZ
TROY
KENT
WASH
UGA
WIS
UTAH
SJSU
UCF
DEL
UNM
WKU
UTEP
MSU
UVA
ARK
BALL
OKST
UNC
KSU
FSU
HOU
UNT
LT
ECU		65
MICH				87
MEM
ISU
AF		81
SMU
SC
CONN
SAC
LSU
EMU
TOL
AKR
WSU
M-OH
MTSU
JXST		73
TCU
USM
OU
PUR
ODU
BGSU
SDSU			60
OSU		68
MD
TXST		76
GASO
ILL		75
LOU				62
NMSU
MOST			78
NAVY				68
KENN
ORST		73
CCU
FIU			69
SYR		81
KU			92
RICE			64
CLT	77
NIU		83
SHSU		73
USU	84
ULM			72
NEV
TEM				91
RUTG			75
GT	81	67

Questions

Who is the luckiest college football team of 2026?

South Florida Bulls so far: 4–0, from play worth 2.4 wins (+1.6 wins of luck). The unluckiest: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 1–3 from play worth 2.9 wins.

What is postgame win expectancy?

How often a team would win a game it just played if the game were played again with the way both teams actually played. The idea comes from Bill Connelly’s SP+; ours replays each team’s own plays from that game 4,000 times, with kicks, fumble bounces and turnovers at the rates you would expect.

What is a luck rating in college football?

Wins minus the postgame win expectancy of every game added up (second-order wins). A team at +2 has won two more games than its play earned; one at −2 has lost two it should have won. Close-game records and turnover margins swing the same way, but the replay counts every game, not only the close ones.

Other seasons

2025