luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 59 of the 66 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Tennessee State at Georgia, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Georgia beat Tennessee State 63–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Georgia was a 100% favorite.

Final

Tennessee State Tigers 3
Georgia Bulldogs 63

September 5, 2026 · Sanford Stadium · Closing line: Georgia −49.5

Luck index 0 Georgia about even · 0 Tennessee State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Tennessee State wins 0, Georgia wins 10.

  1. 1 TNST 0 UGA 42
  2. 2 TNST 7 UGA 56
  3. 3 TNST 3 UGA 55
  4. 4 TNST 0 UGA 56
  5. 5 TNST 7 UGA 66
  6. 6 TNST 0 UGA 63
  7. 7 TNST 0 UGA 66
  8. 8 TNST 0 UGA 69
  9. 9 TNST 0 UGA 72
  10. 10 TNST 0 UGA 77

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Tennessee State wins 0% of them, Georgia 100%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 60.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Tennessee State by 17+0.0%
Tennessee State by 9–160.0%
Tennessee State by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Georgia by 1–80.2%
Georgia by 9–161.3%
Georgia by 17+98.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.8 points to Tennessee State: the final margin was Georgia by 60, without the luck Georgia by 66.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Tennessee State 1 for 10 yards, Georgia 7 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 11:39 Pass Interference on Georgia, 10 yards 0% TNST +1.3 pts
Q2 7:30 Personal Foul on Georgia, 15 yards 0% TNST +1.6 pts
Q2 2:01 Holding on Georgia, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% TNST +1.0 pts
Q2 0:09 Personal Foul on Georgia, 15 yards 0% TNST +0.1 pts
Q3 12:47 Face Mask on Georgia, 15 yards 0% TNST +1.6 pts
Q3 8:40 Holding on Georgia, 10 yards 0% TNST +0.6 pts
Q4 13:38 Illegal Snap on Georgia, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% TNST +6.0 pts
Q4 2:46 Holding on Tennessee State, 10 yards 0% UGA +1.1 pts

When it happened

Georgia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Georgia was ahead in it, below while Tennessee State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:24 Tennessee State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +0% UGA TNST: Punt
2 Q1 8:38 Tennessee State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +0% UGA TNST: Punt
3 Q1 5:40 Tennessee State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +0% UGA TNST: Punt
4 Q1 3:17 Georgia converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +0% UGA UGA: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:47 Tennessee State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +0% UGA TNST: Punt
6 Q2 9:23 Tennessee State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +0% UGA TNST: Punt
7 Q2 7:48 Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +0% UGA UGA: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:46 Holding on Tennessee State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% UGA UGA: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Tennessee State 0% · Georgia 100%

Final margin
Georgia by 60
Luck in points
6.8 for Tennessee State
Luck-adjusted margin
Georgia by 66.8
Replay with same day's form
Tennessee State 0% · Georgia 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 59 of the 66 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Tennessee State · Georgia

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